Itron Inc (ITRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Itron Inc stock $143, price $98.44, upside +45.4%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.79 – $138.42 · fair‑value band $97.98 – $183.66 · the $98.44 price screens below the $143.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Itron, Inc., a technology, solutions, and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage energy, water, and smart city operations worldwide. It operates in four segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, Outcomes, and Resiliency Solution.
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The Device Solutions segment offers hardware products that are used for measurement, control, or sensing, such as standard gas, electricity, water, and communicating meters, as well as heat and allocation products.
The Networked Solutions segment provides communicating devices, such as smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors; network infrastructure; network design services; and associated heat-end management and application software for acquiring and transporting application-specific data.
This segment also products and software for the implementation, installation, and management of communicating devices and data networks; offers industrial internet of things solutions, including automated meter reading; advanced metering infrastructure for electricity, water, and gas; distributed energy resource management; grid edge devices; distribution automation communications; smart lighting; and smart city sensors and applications.
The Outcomes segment provides value-added, enhanced software and services, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, statistical modeling, and other analytics. The Resiliency Solutions segment offers software and services.
The company offers implementation, project management, installation, consulting, and post-sale maintenance support services, as well as cloud and software-as-a-service; and extended or customer-specific warranties. It offers its products and services under the Itron brand.
The company serves utility and smart city customers, and municipalities through its sales force, distributors, agents, partners, and meter manufacturer representatives. Itron, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington.
Stock analysis
Itron Inc (ITRI) currently trades at $98.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $143.13, implying the stock looks roughly 31% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $167.88 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $98.44 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $56.57, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $97.98 (bear) to $183.66 (bull), the price of $98.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Itron Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $301M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.4B Mid · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 1.91 · EPS (TTM) $6.17 · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 15.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 45%, ITRI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$97.98Fair Value $143.13Bull$183.66
Price $98.44 · Upside +45.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.5M and none bought.
SaleDavid Marshall WrightVP, Corp. Controller & CAO8× since Nov 24, 2025: 2,151 shares, avg. $97.99$210,779Nov 3, 2026
SaleJustin K PatrickSVP, Device Solutions9× since Nov 24, 2025: 17,588 shares, avg. $97.69$1.7MSep 3, 2026
SaleDonald L. Reeves IIISVP, Outcomes15× since Nov 24, 2025: 11,959 shares, avg. $97.06$1.2MAug 25, 2026
SaleThomas DeitrichPresident & CEO, Director8× since Nov 24, 2025: 65,970 shares, avg. $98.90$6.5MAug 24, 2026
SaleJoan S HooperSVP & CFO9× since Nov 24, 2025: 27,820 shares, avg. $98.23$2.7MAug 24, 2026
SaleJohn F. MarcoliniSVP, Networked Solutions9× since Nov 24, 2025: 21,730 shares, avg. $90.19$2.0MAug 24, 2026
SaleLaurie Ann Pulatie-HahnSVP, HR11× since Nov 11, 2025: 5,830 shares, avg. $98.05$571,621Aug 24, 2026
SaleChristopher E. WareSVP, GC & Corp. Secretary8× since Nov 24, 2025: 6,719 shares, avg. $98.14$659,394Aug 24, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +39.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.6% vs 27.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 78% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.0% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows strength in shifting installed meters toward recurring software revenue via grid reliability tools, yet its main weakness is the lack of evidence for any durable moat.
Main risk: If the new bundles remain add-ons only for the largest utilities, the shift to ongoing software and analytics contracts would stay limited.
Itron is expanding its Advanced Grid Reliability offerings so utilities can use existing smart meters for real-time fault detection and outage prevention instead of adding new sensors. This shift could speed up recurring revenue from software and analytics while easing pressure on hardware sales cycles. Will the new bundles convert enough of the installed base into ongoing contracts or remain niche add-ons for only the largest utilities?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 161 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Itron Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITRI
Frequently asked questions
Is Itron Inc (ITRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $143.13 versus a price of $98.44, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITRI?
Our model-based fair value for Itron Inc is $143.13 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $98.44.
What is the quality score of ITRI?
Itron Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Itron Inc (ITRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $143.13 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $97.98, optimistic scenario $183.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Itron Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $143.13, about +45% upside versus a price of $98.44 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $97.98, optimistic scenario $183.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
Itron Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Itron Inc (ITRI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Itron Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ITRI use?
Our models discount Itron Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Itron Inc that is +2.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Itron Inc (ITRI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Itron Inc grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +2.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Itron Inc (ITRI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Itron Inc (+2.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.59 %: that much free cash flow Itron Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Itron Inc it is $143.13 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $98.44. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Itron Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ITRI trades below its calculated fair value: price $98.44, fair value $143.13, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($98.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($143.13). For Itron Inc the two are $44.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Itron Inc worth?
The market values Itron Inc at about $4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $98.44; our models calculate a fair value of $143.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITRI?
Our models span a range for Itron Inc: cautious scenario $97.98, base $143.13, optimistic $183.66 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $98.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ITRI?
Itron Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $143.13 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 41.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ITRI?
The PEG ratio of Itron Inc is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Itron Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 16.4%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITRI from its 52-week high?
Itron Inc trades at $98.44, about 8% below its 52-week high of $107.02 and 26% above the low of $78.02 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $143.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Itron Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Garmin Ltd, Coherent Corp, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Itron Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $98.44, calculated fair value $143.13 (+45%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITRI calculated?
We run Itron Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $143.13 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Itron Inc currently trades 31% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $98.44. Our model-based fair value is $143.13, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Itron Inc right now?
Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($97.98 to $183.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Itron Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
The market capitalisation of Itron Inc is $4.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Itron Inc is 1.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
Earnings per share at Itron Inc are $6.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
The net margin of Itron Inc is 12.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Itron Inc is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Itron Inc is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Itron Inc (ITRI)?
The operating margin of Itron Inc is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Itron Inc (ITRI)?
Revenue at Itron Inc is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Itron Inc (ITRI)?
Earnings per share at Itron Inc are growing +14.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Itron Inc (ITRI) carry?
The net debt of Itron Inc is $267M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026