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Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd stock $17.93, price $14.02, upside +27.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · ADR · Based in Japan

JP Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd

JPPHY · US
Undervalued, in an uptrend

The stock costs 22% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $17.93 · Undervalued
2.3% dividend yield · Low payout
Profit last quarter +98% vs. a year ago.
Quality 56/100
Thin margins · 3.8% net margin (TTM)
Neutral coverage
Some data
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.3 %/yr in JPY)
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 31/100 · thin data

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Digital banks eroding deposit base
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.09 $5.59 Fair Value $17.93 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.59 – $18.09 · fair‑value band $15.95 – $21.84 · the $14.02 price screens below the $17.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. provides postal, banking, and insurance services in Japan. It operates through the Postal and Logistics Business, Post Office Counter Business, International Logistics Business, and Real Estate Business segments.

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The company engages in the postal, banking counter, and insurance counter operations; sale of documentary stamps; operations consigned by local government entities; and provision of other bank, and life and non-life insurance agency services.

It also provides domestic distribution and delivery services; and merchandise sale services, as well as international cargo transport and agency services for air cargo business.

In addition, undertakes logistics services, such as parcel and mail delivery; handles ordinary savings, fixed-amount savings, time deposits, remittance and settlement services, and public pensions; and payments, over-the-counter sales of government bonds, and investment trusts.

Further, it is involved in the catalogue sales business through internet and direct mail; sales and issuance of bus tickets; issuance of official certificates; sale of lottery tickets, and conclusion and modification of broadcasting reception contracts; operation of a hospital and a recreational center; development and leasing of office buildings, commercial facilities, and residential properties, as well as the management of rental buildings; and fund management.

Additionally, it provides annuity, cancer, medical, automobile, and personal accident insurance; life support services; ATM partnership services; asset management and lending services; foreign exchange services; regional transportation, warehousing management, resources, and government logistics services; freight and forwarding transportation, and truck transportation; credit card and mortgage brokerage services.

The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) currently trades at $14.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.93, implying the stock looks roughly 22% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $21.22 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $14.02 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.23, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $15.95 (bear) to $21.84 (bull), the price of $14.02 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥11.9T in FY2026 versus ¥11.3T in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥397B in FY2026, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $39.0B Large · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 28%, JPPHY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.95 Fair Value $17.93 Bull $21.84
Price $14.02 · Upside +27.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3690 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $17.56 $17.90 $18.75 76
Gordon GGM $1.86 $2.05 $2.36 69
DDM Multi-Stage $1.86 $2.41 $3.24 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.86 $2.05 $2.36 69
DDM Multi-Stage $1.86 $2.41 $3.24 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.95 $11.93 $14.91 63
P/B Multiple $22.88 $30.51 $38.14 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.90 $14.60 $21.79 53
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.56 $17.90 $18.75 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 16
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 84
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 68
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 79
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 3.4%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (18 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The regional bank's main strength is the steady results from its banking arm, while its core weakness remains the negative free cash flow and low return on equity that signal minimal durable advantage.
Main risk: Digital banks such as Rakuten Bank and SBI Sumishin Net Bank could attract more deposits with higher rates and integrated services, reducing Japan Post Bank's deposit base and pressuring its lending margins.
Bull case: By enhancing its extensive post office network with digital tools and partnerships like the KDDI drone project, Japan Post Bank could offer unique hybrid services that retain rural and underserved customers.
Bear case: If digital rivals continue to capture deposits through superior apps and rates, Japan Post Bank might struggle to grow its lending business and face sustained pressure on profitability from a shrinking deposit base.
Japan Post is testing post office rooftops as drone hubs with KDDI for disaster checks and safety monitoring in shrinking rural areas. The move targets delivery staff shortages across the network while the banking arm supplies steady results. Will these pilots expand into meaningful new uses for the physical footprint or stay a narrow fix for operating costs?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +27.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 5.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 3.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 10.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 6.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.64× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 15.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.63× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.54× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)71 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)32 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)45 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs JPPHY
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs JPPHY
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs JPPHY
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs JPPHY
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs JPPHY
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs JPPHY
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs JPPHY
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs JPPHY
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs JPPHY
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs JPPHY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JPPHY

Frequently asked questions

Is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.93 versus a price of $14.02, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JPPHY?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is $17.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.02.
What is the quality score of JPPHY?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.93 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.95, optimistic scenario $21.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.93, about +28% upside versus a price of $14.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $15.95, optimistic scenario $21.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥11.5T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd pays a dividend of $0.316 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2018. The payout ratio is 34.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd it is $17.93 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $14.02. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, JPPHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.02, fair value $17.93, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JPPHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.93). For Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd the two are $3.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd at about $39.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $14.02; our models calculate a fair value of $17.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JPPHY?
Our models span a range for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario $15.95, base $17.93, optimistic $21.84 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $14.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JPPHY?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.93 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.9. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JPPHY from its 52-week high?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd trades at $14.02, about 22% below its 52-week high of $18.09 and 62% above the low of $8.65 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $14.02, calculated fair value $17.93 (+28%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JPPHY calculated?
We run Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $17.93 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd currently trades 22% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.02. Our model-based fair value is $17.93, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($15.95). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) come from?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd grew +1.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.9 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is $39.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is 0.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The dividend yield of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is 2.3% (payout 34.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The net margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is 3.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The operating margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Revenue at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd are growing +97.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) generate?
The free cash flow of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd is −¥6.9T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) hold?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥39.9T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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