Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Knorr-Bremse AG stock €72.88, price €95.80, that is 23.9% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €39.31 – €113.11 · fair‑value band €53.06 – €91.10 · the €95.80 price screens above the €72.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Knorr-Bremse AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets brake systems for rail and commercial vehicles and other safety-critical systems worldwide. It operates in two segments, Rail Vehicle Systems and Commercial Vehicle Systems.
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The Rail Vehicle Systems segment offers braking systems, entrance and HVAC systems, sanitary systems, coupling systems, digital solutions, smart services for optimizing rail traffic, power electrics, rail computing and communication (RCC)/TCMS, signaling systems, stationary and mobile testing equipment, windshield wiper and wash systems, and extensive aftermarket solutions.
The Commercial Vehicle Systems segment provides pneumatic braking systems comprising brake control systems, disk brakes, drum brakes, brake cylinders, valves, and pedal units; steering systems; vehicle dynamics solutions, such as anti-lock braking systems and electronic stability programs; driver assistance systems; automated driving and electronic leveling control; energy supply and distribution systems, including compressors and air treatment products; and engine components and transmission control systems, such as vibration dampers, engine air management, transmission control, and gear/clutch actuation products for trucks, buses, trailers, and agricultural machinery.
The company offers leasing, holding, logistics, and media and IT services. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Knorr-Bremse AG operates as a subsidiary of KB Holding GmbH.
Stock analysis
Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX) currently trades at €95.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €72.88, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €77.48 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the €95.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €23.82, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €53.06 (bear) to €91.10 (bull), the price of €95.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Knorr-Bremse AG reported revenue of €7.8B in FY2025 versus €6.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was €534M in FY2025, compounding −3.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €15.3B Large · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 1.89 · EPS (TTM) €3.83 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −24%, KBX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€53.06Fair Value €72.88Bull€91.10
Price €95.80 · Downside -23.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.63 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.2% vs −0.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (45 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Aftermarket services deliver a resilient high-margin revenue base, yet public data shows no clear signals of a durable competitive moat or hard-to-copy capabilities.
Main risk: Wabtec in rail braking, ZF in commercial vehicles and Chinese suppliers could intensify price pressure and win contracts in Asia or emerging markets, squeezing margins on original equipment and aftermarket services.
Bull case: Knorr-Bremse could strengthen its position through deeper localisation and supplier partnerships in China, expanded digital predictive-maintenance offerings and redundant braking systems for automated vehicles to retain customers and defend margins.
Bear case: If rivals capture more share through lower-cost offerings or bundled systems, Knorr-Bremse might lose original-equipment contracts and see aftermarket volumes decline as fleets shift to competing platforms.
Knorr-Bremse draws more than 45 percent of revenue from aftermarket services, which deliver higher margins than original equipment sales. This resilient base supports the push into digital rail technologies and the new 2030 targets, yet organic growth remains modest. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the aftermarket cushion and recent contracts prove more durable than the challenges in scaling new rail solutions?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 658 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Knorr-Bremse AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KBX
Frequently asked questions
Is Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €72.88 versus a price of €95.80, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KBX?
Our model-based fair value for Knorr-Bremse AG is €72.88 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €95.80.
What is the quality score of KBX?
Knorr-Bremse AG has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €72.88 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €53.06, optimistic scenario €91.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Knorr-Bremse AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €72.88, about 24% lower versus a price of €95.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €53.06, optimistic scenario €91.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
Knorr-Bremse AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Knorr-Bremse AG pay a dividend?
Knorr-Bremse AG currently shows a dividend yield of 1.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Knorr-Bremse AG would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KBX use?
Our models discount Knorr-Bremse AG at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Knorr-Bremse AG that is +7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Knorr-Bremse AG grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Knorr-Bremse AG (+7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.42 %: that much free cash flow Knorr-Bremse AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Knorr-Bremse AG it is €72.88 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of €95.80. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Knorr-Bremse AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, KBX trades above its calculated fair value: price €95.80, fair value €72.88, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KBX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€95.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€72.88). For Knorr-Bremse AG the two are €22.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Knorr-Bremse AG worth?
The market values Knorr-Bremse AG at about €15.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is €95.80; our models calculate a fair value of €72.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KBX?
Our models span a range for Knorr-Bremse AG: cautious scenario €53.06, base €72.88, optimistic €91.10 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price €95.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KBX?
Knorr-Bremse AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €72.88 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.7. Other multiples: P/B 4.9, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Knorr-Bremse AG (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 19.8%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KBX from its 52-week high?
Knorr-Bremse AG trades at €95.80, about 15% below its 52-week high of €113.11 and 22% above the low of €78.46 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €72.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Knorr-Bremse AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Knorr-Bremse AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price €95.80, calculated fair value €72.88 (−24%), Quality Score 67/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KBX calculated?
We run Knorr-Bremse AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €72.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Knorr-Bremse AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €95.80. Our model-based fair value is €72.88, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Knorr-Bremse AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€91.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX) come from?
Earnings per share at Knorr-Bremse AG grew −1.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Knorr-Bremse AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The market capitalisation of Knorr-Bremse AG is €15.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Knorr-Bremse AG is 1.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
Earnings per share at Knorr-Bremse AG are €3.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The dividend yield of Knorr-Bremse AG is 2.0% (payout 49.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The net margin of Knorr-Bremse AG is 7.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Knorr-Bremse AG is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Knorr-Bremse AG is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
The operating margin of Knorr-Bremse AG is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
Revenue at Knorr-Bremse AG is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX)?
Earnings per share at Knorr-Bremse AG are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Knorr-Bremse AG (KBX) carry?
The net debt of Knorr-Bremse AG is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026