Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kinetik Holdings Inc stock $32.98, price $48.77, that is 32.4% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.55 – $59.83 · fair‑value band $6.60 – $57.72 · the $48.77 price screens above the $32.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Kinetik Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a midstream company in the Texas Delaware Basin. The company operates through two segments, Midstream Logistics and Pipeline Transportation.
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It offers gathering, compression, processing, stabilization, treating, and storage services; transportation services through pipelines; and water gathering and disposal services for companies that produce natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL), and crude oil.
The company also sells condensates, natural gas residue, and NGLs. Kinetik Holdings Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock analysis
Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) currently trades at $48.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.98, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $106.71 per share, and 6 of the 18 models we run sit above the $48.77 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $20.39, and 12 of the 18 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.60 (bear) to $57.72 (bull), the price of $48.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Kinetik Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $662M in FY2021, a compound +27.8%/yr. Reported net income was $178M in FY2025, compounding +231.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $8.3B Mid · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) $2.75 · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 19.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −32%, KNTK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.60Fair Value $32.98Bull$57.72
Price $48.77 · Downside -32.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earningsn/a$30.71$118.1673
5Y EBITDA Exitn/a$17.25$67.9072
FCF DCF$3.45$30.72$116.9369
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$3.45$30.72$116.9369
Owner Earningsn/a$30.71$118.1673
5Y Revenue Exitn/a$0.7400>$2.9669
5Y EBITDA Exitn/a$17.25$67.9072
5Y P/E Exitn/a$14.90$53.6068
10Y Revenue Exitn/a$17.78$40.8064
10Y EBITDA Exitn/a$33.89$106.1465
10Y P/E Exitn/a$22.99$78.2661
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$15.07$105.09$147.4763
Lynch FV$35.68$50.97$66.2661
PEG = 1.0$35.68$50.97$66.2657
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$56.27$115.35$180.1266
DDM Multi-Stage$56.27$98.07$121.3067
Multiples
P/E Multiple$23.27$31.02$38.7863
P/S Multiple$19.74$26.32$32.9058
EV/EBITDAn/an/a$3.0562
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$0.5400$38.80$115.2767
Rev-Margin DCFn/a$7.28>$29.1269
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$40.51$57.87$75.2367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
SaleLaura A SuggDirector61,180 shares at $52.25$3.2MAug 14, 2026
SaleDeborah L ByersDirector2,739 shares at $51.51$141,086Aug 12, 2026
SaleGautam Bhandari10% owner2× since Feb 26, 2026: 4,310,691 shares, avg. $45.34$195.4MAug 12, 2026
SaleMatthew WallOfficer2× since Jan 2, 2026: 11,305 shares, avg. $39.15$442,568Mar 4, 2026
SaleSteven StellatoOfficer2,907 shares at $46.92$136,396Mar 4, 2026
SaleLindsay EllisOfficer1,260 shares at $46.92$59,119Mar 4, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+81.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−36.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−249% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.0% a year for the price and +12.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Strong recent EBITDA growth from higher volumes and new contracts supports cash flow, yet negative equity and high leverage undermine durability.
Main risk: Additional gas pipeline capacity from projects such as Blackcomb and Hugh Brinson could tighten regional price spreads and reduce profits from Kinetik's marketing of residue gas and NGLs.
Bull case: Kinetik could offset narrower marketing spreads through higher processing volumes from Permian expansions and new fee-based contracts tied to data-center gas demand.
Bear case: If new pipelines and contract changes materialise together, Kinetik's marketing and NGL contributions could decline sharply, pressuring overall cash flows in its concentrated Permian operations.
Kinetik posted its strongest quarter on record with a sharp rise in midstream EBITDA and raised full-year 2026 guidance after securing new residue gas contracts and advancing Permian capacity expansions. Our models still see the stock as overvalued. Will the momentum from higher processing volumes and Gulf Coast access deliver durable cash flow growth or will commodity swings and execution risks erode the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−32.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)29.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)23.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.9× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.98 versus a price of $48.77, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KNTK?
Our model-based fair value for Kinetik Holdings Inc is $32.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.77.
What is the quality score of KNTK?
Kinetik Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.60, optimistic scenario $57.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kinetik Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.98, about 32% lower versus a price of $48.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.60, optimistic scenario $57.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Kinetik Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Kinetik Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Kinetik Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 6.58% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Kinetik Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $3.21 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.29 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kinetik Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +39.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNTK use?
Our models discount Kinetik Holdings Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kinetik Holdings Inc that is +39.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kinetik Holdings Inc grew +33.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +39.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kinetik Holdings Inc (+39.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow Kinetik Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kinetik Holdings Inc it is $32.98 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $48.77. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Growth Earnings).
Is Kinetik Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KNTK trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.77, fair value $32.98, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNTK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.98). For Kinetik Holdings Inc the two are $15.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kinetik Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Kinetik Holdings Inc at about $8.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $48.77; our models calculate a fair value of $32.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KNTK?
Our models span a range for Kinetik Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $6.60, base $32.98, optimistic $57.72 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $48.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KNTK?
Kinetik Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.98 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 15.8 (reported for FY2025: 6.0). Other multiples: PEG 8.6, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 19.1.
What is the PEG ratio of KNTK?
The PEG ratio of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 8.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kinetik Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNTK from its 52-week high?
Kinetik Holdings Inc trades at $48.77, about 16% below its 52-week high of $58.09 and 60% above the low of $30.53 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kinetik Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kinetik Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $48.77, calculated fair value $32.98 (−32%), Quality Score 30/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNTK calculated?
We run Kinetik Holdings Inc through 19 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.98 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Kinetik Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $48.77. Our model-based fair value is $32.98, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kinetik Holdings Inc right now?
Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($6.60 to $57.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Kinetik Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The market capitalisation of Kinetik Holdings Inc is $8.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 1.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Earnings per share at Kinetik Holdings Inc are $2.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The dividend yield of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 6.6% (payout 117%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The net margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The operating margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Revenue at Kinetik Holdings Inc is growing +36.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Earnings per share at Kinetik Holdings Inc are growing +95.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) carry?
The net debt of Kinetik Holdings Inc is $3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 51.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026