Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Kinetik Holdings Inc $47.81, price $52.92, upside -9.7%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.85 – $59.83 · fair‑value band $9.56 – $124.89 · the $52.92 price screens above the $47.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kinetik Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a midstream company in the Texas Delaware Basin. The company operates through two segments, Midstream Logistics and Pipeline Transportation.
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Kinetik Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a midstream company in the Texas Delaware Basin. The company operates through two segments, Midstream Logistics and Pipeline Transportation. It offers gathering, compression, processing, stabilization, treating, and storage services; transportation services through pipelines; and water gathering and disposal services for companies that produce natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL), and crude oil. The company also sells condensates, natural gas residue, and NGLs. Kinetik Holdings Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock analysis
Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) currently trades at $52.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.81, implying the stock looks roughly 10.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $102.75 per share, and 6 of the 18 models we run sit above the $52.92 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $7.29, and 12 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.56 (bear) to $124.89 (bull), the price of $52.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Kinetik Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $662M in FY2021, a compound +27.8%/yr. Reported net income was $178M in FY2025, compounding +231.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $8.4B · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) $2.51 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 17.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −10%, KNTK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.56Fair Value $47.81Bull $124.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+81.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+7.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−249% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.0% a year for the price and +10.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.0× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)4.86× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF112.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA21.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG8.62× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)20· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 45
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 81
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.81 versus a price of $52.92, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KNTK?
Our model-based fair value for Kinetik Holdings Inc is $47.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.92.
What is the quality score of KNTK?
Kinetik Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.56, optimistic scenario $124.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kinetik Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.81, about −10% upside versus a price of $52.92 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $9.56, optimistic scenario $124.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Kinetik Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kinetik Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Kinetik Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kinetik Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +38.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNTK use?
Our models discount Kinetik Holdings Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kinetik Holdings Inc that is +38.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kinetik Holdings Inc grew +33.9 % a year. The price currently implies +38.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kinetik Holdings Inc (+38.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.24 %: that much free cash flow Kinetik Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kinetik Holdings Inc it is $47.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $52.92. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kinetik Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KNTK trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.92, fair value $47.81, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNTK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.81). For Kinetik Holdings Inc the two are $5.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kinetik Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Kinetik Holdings Inc at about $8.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $52.92; our models calculate a fair value of $47.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KNTK?
Our models span a range for Kinetik Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $9.56, base $47.81, optimistic $124.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $52.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KNTK?
Kinetik Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $47.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 8.6, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 21.5.
What is the PEG ratio of KNTK?
The PEG ratio of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 8.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kinetik Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNTK from its 52-week high?
Kinetik Holdings Inc trades at $52.92, about 4% below its 52-week high of $55.10 and 73% above the low of $30.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $47.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kinetik Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kinetik Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $52.92, calculated fair value $47.81 (−10%), Quality Score 32/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNTK calculated?
We run Kinetik Holdings Inc through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Kinetik Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $52.92. Our model-based fair value is $47.81, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kinetik Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($9.56 to $124.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Kinetik Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The market capitalisation of Kinetik Holdings Inc is $8.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 2.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Earnings per share at Kinetik Holdings Inc are $2.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The dividend yield of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 6.0% (payout 127%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The net margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kinetik Holdings Inc is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
The operating margin of Kinetik Holdings Inc is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Revenue at Kinetik Holdings Inc is growing −7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK)?
Earnings per share at Kinetik Holdings Inc are growing +486% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) carry?
The net debt of Kinetik Holdings Inc is $3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 51.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026