Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lloyds Banking Group PLC stock £0.76, price £0.96, that is 20.7% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.3902 – £1.17 · fair‑value band £0.7000 – £0.9000 · the £0.9588 price screens above the £0.7600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Lloyds Banking Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and financial products and services for retail and commercial customers in the United Kingdom. It operates in three segments: Retail; Commercial Banking; and Insurance, Pensions and Investments.
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The Retail segment offers a range of financial service products, including current accounts, savings, mortgages, credit cards, unsecured loans, motor finance, and leasing solutions to personal customers.
Its Commercial Banking segment provides lending, transactional banking, working capital management, debt financing, and risk management services to small and medium businesses, corporates, and institutions.
The Insurance, Pensions and Investments segment offers insurance, investment, and pension management products and services. It also provides life assurance; and digital banking services.
The company offers its products and services under the Lloyds Bank, Halifax, Bank of Scotland, Scottish Widows, MBNA, Schroders Personal Wealth, Black Horse, Lex Autolease, Birmingham Midshires, LDC, AMC, Embark Group, Lloyds Living, Cavendish Online, Tusker, and HGP brands.
The company was formerly known as Lloyds TSB Group plc and changed its name to Lloyds Banking Group plc in January 2009. Lloyds Banking Group plc was founded in 1695 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) currently trades at £0.9588, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.7600, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £0.9550 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the £0.9588 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.4600, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £0.7000 (bear) to £0.9000 (bull), the price of £0.9588 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lloyds Banking Group PLC reported revenue of £41.0B in FY2025 versus £18.7B in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was £4.2B in FY2025, compounding −7.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £56.4B Large · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 2.79 · EPS (TTM) £0.1000 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 30.7% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −21%, LLOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£0.7000Fair Value £0.7600Bull£0.9000
Price £0.9588 · Downside -20.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0512 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.3% vs 13.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 16%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Typical regional banking traits backed by ongoing share repurchases contrast with thin differentiation signals and negative free cash flow.
Main risk: Digital-first banks such as Revolut and Monzo could draw retail and small-business customers away from Lloyds with seamless platforms and lower fees, squeezing margins in current accounts, payments and lending.
Bull case: Lloyds could leverage its scale and data to integrate AI agents and tokenised services faster than pure fintechs, retaining customers through superior hybrid offerings and expanding into new revenue streams.
Bear case: If fintechs capture significant market share in digital banking and payments while regulatory redress costs mount, Lloyds could see sustained pressure on customer numbers, fee income and overall profitability.
Lloyds continues buying back and cancelling millions of its own shares each week under the ongoing programme. These repurchases shrink the equity base and support earnings per share. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the capital returns outweigh the cost of buying shares now, or will slower regional lending limit the long-term benefit?
Compare Lloyds Banking Group PLC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.3% · Above median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)44.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.79× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.56× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)45· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)84· sector 53
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lloyds Banking Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LLOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.7600 versus a price of £0.9588, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LLOY?
Our model-based fair value for Lloyds Banking Group PLC is £0.7600 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.9588.
What is the quality score of LLOY?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.7600 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.7000, optimistic scenario £0.9000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lloyds Banking Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.7600, about 21% lower versus a price of £0.9588 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.7000, optimistic scenario £0.9000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £20.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Lloyds Banking Group PLC pay a dividend?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 4.18% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC pays a dividend of £0.0401 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 40.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lloyds Banking Group PLC it is £0.7600 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of £0.9588. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, LLOY trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.9588, fair value £0.7600, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LLOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.9588); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.7600). For Lloyds Banking Group PLC the two are £0.1988 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lloyds Banking Group PLC worth?
The market values Lloyds Banking Group PLC at about £56.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is £0.9588; our models calculate a fair value of £0.7600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LLOY?
Our models span a range for Lloyds Banking Group PLC: cautious scenario £0.7000, base £0.7600, optimistic £0.9000 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price £0.9588). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LLOY?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.7600 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
What is the PEG ratio of LLOY?
The PEG ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 0.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lloyds Banking Group PLC (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 2.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LLOY from its 52-week high?
Lloyds Banking Group PLC trades at £0.9588, about 18% below its 52-week high of £1.17 and 10% above the low of £0.8709 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.7600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lloyds Banking Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lloyds Banking Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price £0.9588, calculated fair value £0.7600 (−21%), Quality Score 50/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LLOY calculated?
We run Lloyds Banking Group PLC through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £0.7600 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Lloyds Banking Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £0.9588. Our model-based fair value is £0.7600, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lloyds Banking Group PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.9000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC grew +15.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lloyds Banking Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
The market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is £56.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 2.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC are £0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
The dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 4.2% (payout 40.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
The net margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 30.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
The operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is 44.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
Revenue at Lloyds Banking Group PLC is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY)?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group PLC are growing +151% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) generate?
The free cash flow of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is −£639M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY) carry?
The net debt of Lloyds Banking Group PLC is £84.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026