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Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc stock $5.59, price $7.34, that is 23.8% below the price, quality 17 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Financial Services US

MD Marathon Digital Holdings Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 24% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +190.9 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Insiders sold $3.7M (6M)
Revenue last quarter 27% below a year ago.
Fair value $5.59 · Overvalued
Quality 17/100
Loss-making · -144.6% net margin (FY2025)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/10)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Negative coverage
Thin data
Estimate

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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$76.09 $3.15 Fair Value $5.59 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.15 – $76.09 · fair‑value band $4.19 – $6.99 · the $7.34 price screens above the $5.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

MARA Holdings, Inc. operates as an energy and digital infrastructure company in North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America.

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The company leverages Bitcoin Mining and Artificial Intelligence compute to monetize excess energy and underutilized power, optimize power management across operations and support AI inference applications.

The company was formerly known as Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MARA Holdings, Inc. in August 2024. MARA Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Hallandale Beach, Florida.

Stock analysis

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) currently trades at $7.34, while our estimate is $5.59, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $4.19 (bear) to $6.99 (bull), the price of $7.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc reported revenue of $907M in FY2025 versus $159M in FY2021, a compound +54.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.3B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.8B Mid · P/S ratio 3.25 · EPS (TTM) $−9.40 · Net margin −145% · Return on equity −106% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −265% · Revenue (TTM) $804M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −24%, MARA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $4.19 Fair Value $5.59 Bull $6.99
Price $7.34 · Downside -23.8%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 17/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 15
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 47
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 7
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 8
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 3
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.7M and none bought.

  • SaleFrederick G ThielChief Executive Officer, Director13× since Nov 17, 2025: 357,565 shares, avg. $10.61$3.8MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleSalman Hassan KhanChief Financial Officer11× since Nov 17, 2025: 213,464 shares, avg. $10.88$2.3MOct 19, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleZabi NowaidGeneral Counsel6× since Apr 17, 2026: 82,468 shares, avg. $12.20$1.0MSep 18, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleDouglas K MellingerDirector7,000 shares at $16.00$112,000Jun 22, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 23 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+97.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+190.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +47.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+95.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−225.3% (2020) → −90.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MARA screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Weak durable advantage from commodity exposure and negative margins forms the main weakness while infrastructure expansion into AI computing represents the primary potential strength.
Main risk: Ties to external crypto prices threaten margins and net results through direct exposure in the Bitcoin mining model.
Marathon continues to draw down its Bitcoin treasury through sales and transfers, most recently moving nearly a thousand coins to Galaxy Digital. The proceeds help fund power assets and an expansion into AI computing capacity. Does the potential from new infrastructure contracts exceed the opportunity cost of holding less Bitcoin through price cycles?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 455 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 17 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −17.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −144.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −26.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.92× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 3.48× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.10× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 58
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)54 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $187.56 $260.72 +39% vs MARA
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $93.03 $117.60 +26% vs MARA
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.21 ¥18.02 +11% vs MARA
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.51 $10.17 +7% vs MARA
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $910.19 $766.86 −16% vs MARA
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.53 ¥20.42 −20% vs MARA
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $81.33 $47.60 −41% vs MARA
Macquarie Group MQG A$249.23 A$123.84 −50% vs MARA
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs MARA
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $77.59 $17.48 −77% vs MARA

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Marathon Digital Holdings Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marathon Digital Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MARA

Frequently asked questions

Is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $5.59 versus a price of $7.34, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MARA?
Our estimate for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is $5.59 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.34.
What is the quality score of MARA?
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 17/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $5.59 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $4.19, optimistic scenario $6.99. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Marathon Digital Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $5.59, about 24% lower versus a price of $7.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.19, optimistic scenario $6.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $804M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marathon Digital Holdings Inc it is $5.59 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $7.34.
Is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, MARA trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.34, fair value $5.59, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MARA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.59). For Marathon Digital Holdings Inc the two are $1.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Marathon Digital Holdings Inc at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $7.34; our models calculate a fair value of $5.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MARA?
Our models span a range for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $4.19, base $5.59, optimistic $6.99 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $7.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MARA?
The PEG ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is 0.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −105.6%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 17/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MARA from its 52-week high?
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc trades at $7.34, about 53% below its 52-week high of $15.58 and 25% above the low of $5.88 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marathon Digital Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marathon Digital Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $7.34, calculated fair value $5.59 (−24%), Quality Score 17/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Marathon Digital Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $7.34. Our estimate is $5.59, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marathon Digital Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (17/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The market capitalisation of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is 3.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc are $−9.40. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The net margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −145% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −106% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
The operating margin of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −265% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Revenue at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is growing −26.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +97.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Digital Holdings Inc are growing +86.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) generate?
The free cash flow of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is −$312M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) carry?
The net debt of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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