Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp stock $26.04, price $23.67, upside +10.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 68/100
Highly profitable · 25.8% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
2.9% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(10/14)
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +58% vs. a year ago.
Fair value $26.04 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
Wide moat74/100 · thin data
Insiders bought $326,956 (6M)
Weak Growth(revenue 3y −8.2 %/yr in USD)
⟳ CyclicalQuality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Larger South Texas peers like EOG and ConocoPhillips🚩High revenue concentration with few customers🚩Stricter environmental rules and climate litigation
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.76 – $31.94 · fair‑value band $18.23 – $33.85 · the $23.67 price screens below the $26.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States.
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The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) currently trades at $23.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.04, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.76 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $23.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.78, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.23 (bear) to $33.85 (bull), the price of $23.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $325M in FY2025, compounding −6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 3.90 · EPS (TTM) $2.16 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 25.8% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, MGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.23Fair Value $26.04Bull$33.85
Price $23.67 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.26 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.5% vs 19.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−356% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+33.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+56.6%) comes with 45% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +8.0%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.3% a year for the price and +30.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The larger contiguous South Texas position should generate synergies and steadier free cash flow after the WildFire deal, yet the firm lacks a durable moat as a typical commodity E&P producer with weak pricing power.
Main risk: Larger operators such as EOG Resources and ConocoPhillips with greater scale, proprietary technology and marketing reach in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk could capture acreage or compress realized prices and margins for Magnolia.
Bull case: Magnolia could leverage its contiguous South Texas position and integration of WildFire assets to achieve lower unit costs and outpace smaller rivals while using AI tools for drilling and production optimization to sustain margins.
Bear case: Intense competition from scaled peers combined with customer losses or new emissions rules could erode margins, delay development and force higher debt or asset sales that weaken Magnolia's free cash flow profile.
Magnolia has closed the WildFire deal and sold non-core assets to cut net debt well ahead of its original timetable. The larger contiguous position in South Texas should deliver meaningful synergies and steadier free cash flow, but blending two portfolios always carries execution risks. Will the integration deliver the expected efficiencies before any operational friction appears?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Return on assets11.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)43.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)58.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.35× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.90× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.9× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.04 versus a price of $23.67, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MGY?
Our model-based fair value for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is $26.04 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.67.
What is the quality score of MGY?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.04 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.23, optimistic scenario $33.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.04, about +10% upside versus a price of $23.67 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $18.23, optimistic scenario $33.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp pay a dividend?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 2.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp pays a dividend of $0.69 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 10, 2026, with payment on Dec 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 31.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.20 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGY use?
Our models discount Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp that is -3.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp grew +19.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (-3.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.36 %: that much free cash flow Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp it is $26.04 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $23.67. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.67, fair value $26.04, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.04). For Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp the two are $2.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp worth?
The market values Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $23.67; our models calculate a fair value of $26.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGY?
Our models span a range for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp: cautious scenario $18.23, base $26.04, optimistic $33.85 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $23.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGY?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.04 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 7.9. Other multiples: P/B 3.4, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGY from its 52-week high?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp trades at $23.67, about 26% below its 52-week high of $31.94 and 14% above the low of $20.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $23.67, calculated fair value $26.04 (+10%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGY calculated?
We run Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $26.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $23.67. Our model-based fair value is $26.04, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($18.23 to $33.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The market capitalisation of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is 3.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
Earnings per share at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp are $2.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The dividend yield of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is 2.9% (payout 31.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The net margin of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is 25.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is 25.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
The operating margin of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is 43.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
Revenue at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is growing +58.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY)?
Earnings per share at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp are growing −13.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) carry?
The net debt of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is $153M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026