Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. stock $78.33, price $209, that is 62.6% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $134.07 – $236.95 · fair‑value band $53.48 – $136.12 · the $209.43 price screens above the $78.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., a professional services company, provides advisory services and insurance solutions to clients in the areas of risk, strategy, and people worldwide. The company operates through Risk and Insurance Services, and Consulting segments.
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The Risk and Insurance Services segment offers risk management services, such as risk management, insurance broking, insurance program management, risk consulting, analytical modeling, and alternative risk financing services.
This segment also offers insurance and reinsurance broking, strategic advisory and actuarial services, and analytics solutions. It serves businesses, public entities, insurance companies, associations, professional services organizations, and private clients.
The Consulting segment provides health, wealth and career advice, solutions and products; and specialized management, strategic, economic, and brand consulting services. Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) currently trades at $209.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $78.33, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $113.33 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $209.43 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $58.84, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $53.48 (bear) to $136.12 (bull), the price of $209.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. reported revenue of $27.0B in FY2025 versus $19.8B in FY2021, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was $4.2B in FY2025, compounding +7.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $101B Large · P/E ratio 25.1 · P/S ratio 3.56 · EPS (TTM) $8.36 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 14.2% · Return on equity 27.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −63%, MRSH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$53.48Fair Value $78.33Bull$136.12
Price $209.43 · Downside -62.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $12.0M and none bought.
SaleStacy MillsVice President and Controller1,215 shares at $200.00$243,000Oct 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDean Michael KlisuraPresident & CEO, Marsh RE4,194 shares at $200.00$838,800Oct 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJohn Q DoylePresident and CEO4× since Dec 1, 2025: 71,046 shares, avg. $179.14$12.7MSep 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKatherine BrennanSVP and General Counsel1,197 shares at $187.90$224,916Sep 2, 2026
SaleJohn Jude JonesChief Marketing Officer2× since Mar 11, 2026: 8,862 shares, avg. $187.07$1.7MAug 6, 2026
SalePaul BeswickSVP, Chief Information Officer713 shares at $198.00$141,174Jul 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMartin SouthChief Client Officer7,100 shares at $189.99$1.3MJul 28, 2026
SaleLloyd M YatesDirector12,000 shares at $175.65$2.1MJul 23, 2026
SaleNicholas Mark StuderPresident and CEO of OWG3,837 shares at $184.03$706,123Mar 3, 2026
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.6% vs 11.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.1% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Marsh shows solid returns and cash flow supported by efficiency gains in shared services and technology, yet lacks confirmed durable advantages while carrying debt above equity.
Main risk: Generative AI platforms might automate routine insurance placements for middle-market and SME clients, reducing demand for traditional brokerage services and squeezing margins in those segments.
Bull case: By deploying its proprietary data and AI tools, the company could strengthen its advisory role and develop new revenue streams from AI-enabled risk management services.
Bear case: If AI platforms capture significant share of simpler placements, brokerage revenue from middle-market clients could decline substantially, pressuring overall margins despite strength in complex risks.
Marsh is lifting its Thrive efficiency target after shared services and technology delivered more savings than planned. Global commercial rates keep falling for the ninth straight quarter. Will the productivity gains widen margins faster than the reinvestments in tools and producers eat into them?
Compare Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−62.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.1× · Pricier than median
P/B6.71× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)3.56× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow20.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.8× · Pricier than median
PEG1.50× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)41· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 69
HEALTH (low debt)39· sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 67
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRSH
Frequently asked questions
Is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $78.33 versus a price of $209.43, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRSH?
Our model-based fair value for Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is $78.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $209.43.
What is the quality score of MRSH?
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $78.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $53.48, optimistic scenario $136.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $78.33, about 63% lower versus a price of $209.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $53.48, optimistic scenario $136.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $28.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. pay a dividend?
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +8.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRSH use?
Our models discount Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. that is +8.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (+8.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.93 %: that much free cash flow Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. it is $78.33 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $209.43. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MRSH trades above its calculated fair value: price $209.43, fair value $78.33, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRSH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($209.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($78.33). For Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. the two are $131.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. worth?
The market values Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. at about $101B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $209.43; our models calculate a fair value of $78.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRSH?
Our models span a range for Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.: cautious scenario $53.48, base $78.33, optimistic $136.12 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $209.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRSH?
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $78.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 24.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 6.7, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 14.8.
What is the PEG ratio of MRSH?
The PEG ratio of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is 1.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 27.2%, debt of 1.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRSH from its 52-week high?
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. trades at $209.43, at its 52-week high of $210.38 and 35% above the low of $155.53 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $78.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Aon plc, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, Brown & Brown, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $209.43, calculated fair value $78.33 (−63%), Quality Score 64/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRSH calculated?
We run Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $78.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $209.43. Our model-based fair value is $78.33, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($136.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($53.48 to $136.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) come from?
Earnings per share at Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. grew +11.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The market capitalisation of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is $101B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is 3.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
Earnings per share at Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. are $8.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The dividend yield of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is 1.8% (payout 45.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The net margin of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is 14.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is 27.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
The operating margin of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
Revenue at Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)?
Earnings per share at Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. are growing +11.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) carry?
The net debt of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is $18.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026