Aurubis AG (NDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aurubis AG stock €110, price €138, that is 20.5% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €49.43 – €219.20 · fair‑value band €99.64 – €134.86 · the €138.20 price screens above the €109.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Aurubis AG processes metal concentrates and recycling materials in Germany. The company engages in processing of scrap metals, organic and inorganic metalbearing recycling raw materials, and industrial residues.
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It also offers copper cast rods and specialty wires, shapes, bars and profiles, industrial rolled products, and architectural rolled products. In addition, the company produces gold, silver, tin, lead, lead-bismuth alloy, lead-antimony litharge, tellurium metals, and tellurium dioxide.
Further, the company engages in the recycling of copper and alloy scrap; printed circuit board and electronic scrap; mixed heavy metal fractions and shredder; residues, slimes, and sludges; preciouse metal recycling material; tin scrap; and copper iron and bimetal scrap.
Additionally, it provides sulfuric acid, iron-silicate, smelter intermediates, and selenium, as well as produces various products from purchased copper and copper alloy scrap, electronic scrap, and industrial residues.
The company was formerly known as Norddeutsche Affinerie AG and changed its name to Aurubis AG in April 2009. Aurubis AG was incorporated in 1866 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.
Stock analysis
Aurubis AG (NDA) currently trades at €138.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €109.90, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €223.43 per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the €138.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €18.98, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €99.64 (bear) to €134.86 (bull), the price of €138.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aurubis AG reported revenue of €18.2B in FY2025 versus €16.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was €539M in FY2025, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €6.0B Mid · P/E ratio 6.0 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) €23.13 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −20%, NDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€99.64Fair Value €109.90Bull€134.86
Price €138.20 · Downside -20.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€21.53 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.7% vs 16.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Record copper premiums and recycling volumes underpin resilience, while negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow points to weak pricing power.
Main risk: BAFA investigations under the Supply Chain Due Diligence Act into Aurubis sourcing from mines in Peru, Mexico and Panama linked to environmental and human rights issues could restrict access to concentrates or trigger fines and sourcing changes.
Bull case: Aurubis could strengthen its position by deepening responsible sourcing practices and leveraging its Hamburg automation investments to secure preferred access to complex recycled materials amid tighter supply chain standards.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory scrutiny and rival capacity additions could constrain raw material inflows and erode recycling margins, limiting Aurubis' ability to offset execution challenges at new facilities.
Aurubis is pushing ahead with automated pre-processing facilities at its Hamburg multimetal hub while facing a more demanding ramp-up at the new Richmond plant. Analysts have trimmed profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on that basis even as record copper premiums and recycling volumes point to resilience. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the Hamburg investments and commercial strengths deliver enough to offset Richmond execution risks, or will those hurdles keep weighing on near-term results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)40.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aurubis AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NDA
Frequently asked questions
Is Aurubis AG (NDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €109.90 versus a price of €138.20, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NDA?
Our model-based fair value for Aurubis AG is €109.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €138.20.
What is the quality score of NDA?
Aurubis AG has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aurubis AG (NDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €109.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €99.64, optimistic scenario €134.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aurubis AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €109.90, about 20% lower versus a price of €138.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €99.64, optimistic scenario €134.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
Aurubis AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €22.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Aurubis AG pay a dividend?
Aurubis AG currently shows a dividend yield of 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aurubis AG it is €109.90 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €138.20. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aurubis AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, NDA trades above its calculated fair value: price €138.20, fair value €109.90, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€138.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€109.90). For Aurubis AG the two are €28.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aurubis AG worth?
The market values Aurubis AG at about €6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €138.20; our models calculate a fair value of €109.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NDA?
Our models span a range for Aurubis AG: cautious scenario €99.64, base €109.90, optimistic €134.86 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €138.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NDA?
Aurubis AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €109.90 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
What is the PEG ratio of NDA?
The PEG ratio of Aurubis AG is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aurubis AG (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NDA from its 52-week high?
Aurubis AG trades at €138.20, about 37% below its 52-week high of €219.20 and 32% above the low of €104.96 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €109.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aurubis AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aurubis AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €138.20, calculated fair value €109.90 (−20%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NDA calculated?
We run Aurubis AG through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €109.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Aurubis AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €138.20. Our model-based fair value is €109.90, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aurubis AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€134.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Aurubis AG (NDA) come from?
Earnings per share at Aurubis AG grew +16.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.1 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aurubis AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
The market capitalisation of Aurubis AG is €6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aurubis AG is 0.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
Earnings per share at Aurubis AG are €23.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
The dividend yield of Aurubis AG is 1.2% (payout 6.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
The net margin of Aurubis AG is 4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aurubis AG is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aurubis AG is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aurubis AG (NDA)?
The operating margin of Aurubis AG is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aurubis AG (NDA)?
Revenue at Aurubis AG is growing +40.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aurubis AG (NDA)?
Earnings per share at Aurubis AG are growing +96.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aurubis AG (NDA) generate?
The free cash flow of Aurubis AG is −€83.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aurubis AG (NDA) carry?
The net debt of Aurubis AG is €222M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026