Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · IN · Market cap ₹1.0T

A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹621.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide (₹222.65 to ₹621.03). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹539.59 – ₹2,210 · fair‑value band ₹222.65 – ₹621.03 · the ₹2,210 price screens above the ₹441.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG) currently trades at ₹2,210, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹441.74, implying the stock looks roughly 80.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Bharat Forge Limited generated revenue of ₹168B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at ₹63.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹222.65 (bear case) to ₹621.03 (bull case); at ₹2,210, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -80%, BHARATFORG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (₹451.66) versus Asset-Based (₹134.25). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Bharat Forge Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of forged and machined components in India and internationally. It operates through three segments: Forgings, Defence, and Others.

Full company description

Bharat Forge Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of forged and machined components in India and internationally. It operates through three segments: Forgings, Defence, and Others. The company offers automotive components comprising crankshafts, connecting rods, emission/after treatment, and fuel injection systems; chassis, such as front axle beams, steering knuckles, control arms, knuckle, forks, and reinforcement brackets; transmission and driveline components; and power generation components for thermal, hydro, wind, and nuclear energy. It provides oil and gas forging products, such as subsea, surface, and drilling components; rail products comprising engine and bogie components, turbochargers, and power electronics; and marine products that include propellers, marine motor, stern tube, crankshaft, conrod, piston rod, and rudders which include stock, trunk, and pintle. In addition, the company offers various components, such as turbochargers and superchargers, rotor assembly, and air cycle machine for land, marine, and aviation application; construction and mining products, including machined crankshafts, injector bodies, front spindles, and track links; and e-mobility, castings, and defense products. Further, it provides aero-frame, landing gear, and critical engine components. The company was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Pune, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Bharat Forge Limited reported revenue of ₹168B in FY2026 versus ₹105B in FY2022, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹10.8B in FY2026, compounding −0.0%/yr from FY2022.

BHARATFORG screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 641 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.