NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. stock €8.96, price €5.64, upside +59.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.59 – €5.64 · fair‑value band €6.22 – €11.83 · the €5.64 price screens below the €8.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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NOS, S.G.P.S., S.A. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the telecommunications and entertainment business. The company offers cable and satellite television, voice and internet access, mobile broadband internet access and mobile voice; and voice over internet protocol services.
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It is involved in publishing and sale of video grams; advertising on pay-TV channels; operation of cinemas and mobile communications network; distribution of films; production of pay-TV channels; data center management; licensing; and provision of engineering and consultancy services in information systems.
In addition, the company engages in the negotiation, acquisition, purchase, and distribution of content rights and other multimedia products; distributing films; acquiring/negotiating rights for pay-TV and video-on-demand; cinema exhibition and distribution; sale of DVDs and insurance; and provision of security solutions.
Further, it invests in and supports the development of companies that commercialize technologies and products; ownership, management, and operation of intellectual property; supply and marketing of electronic communications products and equipment; distribution of television and radio program; and provision of accounting, logistical, administrative, financial, tax, human resources and any other services.
Additionally, the company is involved in demonstration, dissemination, and technology transfer and training activities; import, distribution, exploitation, commercialization, and production of audiovisual products; design, construction, management, and operation of electronic communications networks, and related equipment and infrastructures; buying and selling, renting, operating, purchase, and sale of property and commercial establishments; development and construction of buildings, planning, urban management, studies, construction and property management.
The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
Stock analysis
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS) currently trades at €5.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.96, implying the stock looks roughly 37% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €10.92 per share, and 21 of the 23 models we run sit above the €5.64 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €5.14, and 2 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €6.22 (bear) to €11.83 (bull), the price of €5.64 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. reported revenue of €1.8B in FY2025 versus €1.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was €246M in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.9B Mid · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) €0.5200 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 26.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 49% fair-value upside, at 59%, NOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€6.22Fair Value €8.96Bull€11.83
Price €5.64 · Upside +59.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.3648 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 23%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Reliable cash flows from core telecom operations provide stability, while limited public evidence of a durable moat amid telecom competition stands as the main weakness.
Main risk: Heavy spending on 5G, AI and the new defense initiatives risks raising cost pressure and thereby compressing margins in the cash-flow-generating core business.
NOS recently partnered with Telefónica to develop secure 5G connectivity and AI solutions for defense and critical infrastructure across Europe. Its core telecom business generates reliable cash flows while the company keeps investing heavily in 5G and AI. Will the new defense work create meaningful additional growth or simply add to the existing spending pressure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+59.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.85× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.72× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.9× · Cheaper than median
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Is NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.96 versus a price of €5.64, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NOS?
Our model-based fair value for NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is €8.96 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €5.64.
What is the quality score of NOS?
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.96 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.22, optimistic scenario €11.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.96, about +59% upside versus a price of €5.64 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €6.22, optimistic scenario €11.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. pay a dividend?
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. pays a dividend of €0.1 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was May 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2004. The payout ratio is 19.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 7.83 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOS use?
Our models discount NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. that is -3.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (-3.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.92 %: that much free cash flow NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. it is €8.96 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of €5.64. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, NOS trades below its calculated fair value: price €5.64, fair value €8.96, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€5.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.96). For NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. the two are €3.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. worth?
The market values NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. at about €2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is €5.64; our models calculate a fair value of €8.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOS?
Our models span a range for NOS S.G.P.S. S.A.: cautious scenario €6.22, base €8.96, optimistic €11.83 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price €5.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOS?
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.96 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 12.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.9, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NOS?
The PEG ratio of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is 1.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 26.6%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOS from its 52-week high?
NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. trades at €5.64, at its 52-week high of €5.64 and 59% above the low of €3.55 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NOS S.G.P.S. S.A.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price €5.64, calculated fair value €8.96 (+59%), Quality Score 59/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOS calculated?
We run NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €8.96 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. currently trades 37% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was €5.64. Our model-based fair value is €8.96, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€6.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€6.22 to €11.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The market capitalisation of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is €2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is 1.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
Earnings per share at NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. are €0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The dividend yield of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is 1.8% (payout 19.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The net margin of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is 15.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is 26.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
The operating margin of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
Revenue at NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS)?
Earnings per share at NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. are growing +35.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. (NOS) carry?
The net debt of NOS S.G.P.S. S.A. is €1.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 13, 2026