Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Onto Innovation Inc stock $155, price $185, that is 16.0% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 16% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 66/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +12.6 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Upbeat coverage
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +35%, profit +75%.
Mixed vs. peers(8/14)
Moderate moat55/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $902,300 (6M)
Some data
Fair value $155.24 · Overvalued (−16.0%)
⟳ CyclicalQuality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Sector-wide pullback from doubts about pace of AI-driven capital spending🚩Chairman warning of AI bubble and consolidation in chip tools sector🚩Dependence on few large customers🚩Rivals matching advanced packaging capabilities
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $59.04 – $378.45 · fair‑value band $117.04 – $190.70 · the $184.82 price screens above the $155.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Onto Innovation Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and support of process control tools that perform macro-defect inspection and metrology in the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Asia, and Europe.
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The company offers lithography systems and process control analytical software; and automated and integrated metrology systems, silicon wafer all-surface inspection, macro defect inspection, automated defect classification and pattern analysis, yield analysis, opaque film metrology, 4D business, advanced packaging lithography, process control software, and yield management software products.
It also provides process and yield management solutions, and device packaging and test facilities through standalone systems for optical metrology, macro-defect inspection, packaging lithography, and transparent and opaque thin film measurements.
In addition, the company offers process control software portfolio that includes solutions for standalone tools, groups of tools, and factory-wide suites.
Further, it engages in systems and software, spare parts, and other services, as well as offers software licensing services; and provides advanced product lines, such as FAaST, CnCV, and MBIR. The company's products are used in semiconductor and advanced packaging device manufacturers; silicon wafers; semiconductor integrated circuit fabricators; light emitting diodes; vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers; micro-electromechanical systems; CMOS image sensors; silicon and compound semiconductor power devices; analog devices; RF filters; data storage; and various industrial and scientific applications.
Onto Innovation Inc. was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) currently trades at $184.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $155.24, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $105.86 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $184.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.40, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $117.04 (bear) to $190.70 (bull), the price of $184.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Onto Innovation Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $789M in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $137M in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.9B Large · P/E ratio 69.5 · P/S ratio 9.73 · EPS (TTM) $2.66 · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 23.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −16%, ONTO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$117.04Fair Value $155.24Bull$190.70
Price $184.82 · Downside -16.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $902,300 and none bought.
SaleDavid Brian MillerDirector2,000 shares at $300.00$600,000Sep 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSusan D LynchDirector1,000 shares at $302.30$302,300Aug 21, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.34.6% vs 12.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.7% a year for the price and +25.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Record backlog and SK hynix recognition in hidden-defect inspection form the main strength while thin evidence of durable advantages and subdued returns on equity remain the central weakness.
Main risk: If one or more key customers such as SK hynix reduce orders for metrology and inspection systems, revenue and cash flows could decline substantially.
Bull case: By expanding its customer base through new platform wins in AI packaging and leveraging partnerships like Rigaku, Onto Innovation could reduce reliance on a few buyers and maintain demand for its inspection tools.
Bear case: If key customers cut spending or rivals like KLA and Camtek capture more share in advanced packaging metrology, Onto Innovation's order book could shrink and its revenue growth could stall for years.
Onto Innovation carries a record backlog above one billion dollars and recently earned a best-partner award from SK hynix for hidden-defect inspection in high-bandwidth memory. Our models see the stock as overvalued amid a sector-wide pullback. Will the company turn that order book into durable growth in advanced AI packaging, or will equipment-cycle caution and high multiples cap the rebound?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 233 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $155.24 versus a price of $184.82, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ONTO?
Our model-based fair value for Onto Innovation Inc is $155.24 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $184.82.
What is the quality score of ONTO?
Onto Innovation Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $155.24 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $117.04, optimistic scenario $190.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Onto Innovation Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $155.24, about 16% lower versus a price of $184.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $117.04, optimistic scenario $190.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
Onto Innovation Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Onto Innovation Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ONTO use?
Our models discount Onto Innovation Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Onto Innovation Inc that is +18.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Onto Innovation Inc grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Onto Innovation Inc (+18.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.27 %: that much free cash flow Onto Innovation Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Onto Innovation Inc it is $155.24 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $184.82. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Onto Innovation Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ONTO trades above its calculated fair value: price $184.82, fair value $155.24, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ONTO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($184.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($155.24). For Onto Innovation Inc the two are $29.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Onto Innovation Inc worth?
The market values Onto Innovation Inc at about $10.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $184.82; our models calculate a fair value of $155.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ONTO?
Our models span a range for Onto Innovation Inc: cautious scenario $117.04, base $155.24, optimistic $190.70 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $184.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ONTO?
Onto Innovation Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $155.24 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 44.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 5.2, P/S 9.7, EV/EBITDA 34.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ONTO?
The PEG ratio of Onto Innovation Inc is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Onto Innovation Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ONTO from its 52-week high?
Onto Innovation Inc trades at $184.82, about 51% below its 52-week high of $378.45 and 49% above the low of $124.09 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $155.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Onto Innovation Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Onto Innovation Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $184.82, calculated fair value $155.24 (−16%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ONTO calculated?
We run Onto Innovation Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $155.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Onto Innovation Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $184.82. Our model-based fair value is $155.24, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Onto Innovation Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) come from?
Earnings per share at Onto Innovation Inc grew +16.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.2 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Onto Innovation Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
The market capitalisation of Onto Innovation Inc is $10.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Onto Innovation Inc is 9.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
Earnings per share at Onto Innovation Inc are $2.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 69.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
The net margin of Onto Innovation Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Onto Innovation Inc is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Onto Innovation Inc is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
The operating margin of Onto Innovation Inc is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
Revenue at Onto Innovation Inc is growing +35.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)?
Earnings per share at Onto Innovation Inc are growing +75.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) hold?
Onto Innovation Inc holds more cash than debt, $329M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026