Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $13.9B

A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($66.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $56.83 – $378.45 · fair‑value band $41.24 – $66.73 · the $268.70 price screens above the $54.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) currently trades at $268.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.71, implying the stock looks roughly 79.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Onto Innovation Inc generated revenue of $1.0B at a net margin of 10.3%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $329M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $41.24 (bear case) to $66.73 (bull case); at $268.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 201% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -75% fair-value upside, at -80%, ONTO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($94.78) versus Asset-Based ($28.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Onto Innovation Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and support of process control tools that perform macro-defect inspection and metrology in the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Asia, and Europe.

Full company description

Onto Innovation Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and support of process control tools that perform macro-defect inspection and metrology in the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Asia, and Europe. The company offers lithography systems and process control analytical software; and automated and integrated metrology systems, silicon wafer all-surface inspection, macro defect inspection, automated defect classification and pattern analysis, yield analysis, opaque film metrology, 4D business, advanced packaging lithography, process control software, and yield management software products. It also provides process and yield management solutions, and device packaging and test facilities through standalone systems for optical metrology, macro-defect inspection, packaging lithography, and transparent and opaque thin film measurements. In addition, the company offers process control software portfolio that includes solutions for standalone tools, groups of tools, and factory-wide suites. Further, it engages in systems and software, spare parts, and other services, as well as offers software licensing services; and provides advanced product lines, such as FAaST, CnCV, and MBIR. The company's products are used in semiconductor and advanced packaging device manufacturers; silicon wafers; semiconductor integrated circuit fabricators; light emitting diodes; vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers; micro-electromechanical systems; CMOS image sensors; silicon and compound semiconductor power devices; analog devices; RF filters; data storage; and various industrial and scientific applications. Onto Innovation Inc. was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Onto Innovation Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $789M in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $137M in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.

ONTO screens 80% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →

Peer Group

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 208 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.