Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Origin Energy Ltd stock A$11.45, price A$12.14, that is 5.7% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.27 – A$12.79 · fair‑value band A$6.48 – A$14.89 · the A$12.14 price screens above the A$11.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally.
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The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland.
The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products.
In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business.
Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.
Stock analysis
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) currently trades at A$12.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$11.45, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$12.64 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$12.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.94, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$6.48 (bear) to A$14.89 (bull), the price of A$12.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Origin Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$15.4B in FY2026 versus A$14.4B in FY2022, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.6B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$21.0B (≈ $14.7B) Large · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) A$0.9121 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −6%, ORG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$6.48Fair Value A$11.45BullA$14.89
Price A$12.14 · Downside -5.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1096 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+85.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+80.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.8% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Origin draws modest strength from scale and cash metrics within its regulated utility setting, yet this is offset by limited differentiation evidence and reliance on one-off items.
Main risk: Electrification of households and businesses plus battery storage could reduce demand for Origin's gas retail and generation volumes, squeezing revenues in its integrated gas and energy markets segments.
Bull case: Origin could leverage its battery and gas-peaking portfolio plus data-centre demand growth to offset lower gas volumes and maintain stable cash flows through the transition.
Bear case: If gas demand falls faster than expected and retail competition intensifies, Origin might face sustained pressure on gas-related revenues and retail margins alongside higher financing costs.
Origin is pausing development of what would have been Australia’s largest wind farm because construction costs have risen sharply, freeing resources for other work in its portfolio. The company continues to advance battery storage and explore gas-fired generation alongside its core gas and electricity businesses. Does this reflect a pragmatic tilt toward dispatchable assets that better match customer demand patterns than wind alone?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−5.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−10.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Origin Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORG
Frequently asked questions
Is Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$11.45 versus a price of A$12.14, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ORG?
Our model-based fair value for Origin Energy Ltd is A$11.45 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$12.14.
What is the quality score of ORG?
Origin Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$11.45 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$6.48, optimistic scenario A$14.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Origin Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$11.45, about 6% lower versus a price of A$12.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$6.48, optimistic scenario A$14.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Origin Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$15.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Origin Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Origin Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Origin Energy Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORG use?
Our models discount Origin Energy Ltd at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Origin Energy Ltd that is -2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Origin Energy Ltd grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies -2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Origin Energy Ltd (-2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.27 %: that much free cash flow Origin Energy Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Origin Energy Ltd it is A$11.45 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of A$12.14. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Origin Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, ORG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$12.14, fair value A$11.45, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$12.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$11.45). For Origin Energy Ltd the two are A$0.6900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Origin Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Origin Energy Ltd at about A$21.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is A$12.14; our models calculate a fair value of A$11.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORG?
Our models span a range for Origin Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$6.48, base A$11.45, optimistic A$14.89 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price A$12.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORG?
Origin Energy Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$11.45 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 18.1 (reported 13.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 13.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.1, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ORG?
The PEG ratio of Origin Energy Ltd is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Origin Energy Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORG from its 52-week high?
Origin Energy Ltd trades at A$12.14, about 5% below its 52-week high of A$12.79 and 20% above the low of A$10.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$11.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Origin Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Origin Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price A$12.14, calculated fair value A$11.45 (−6%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORG calculated?
We run Origin Energy Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$11.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Origin Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was A$12.14. Our model-based fair value is A$11.45, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Origin Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$6.48 to A$14.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Origin Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The market capitalisation of Origin Energy Ltd is A$21.0B (≈ $14.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Origin Energy Ltd is 1.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Earnings per share at Origin Energy Ltd are A$0.9121 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The dividend yield of Origin Energy Ltd is 4.9% (payout 89.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 65.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The net margin of Origin Energy Ltd is 10.1% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2026 7.5%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Origin Energy Ltd is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Origin Energy Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The operating margin of Origin Energy Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Revenue at Origin Energy Ltd is growing −10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Earnings per share at Origin Energy Ltd are growing +119% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) carry?
The net debt of Origin Energy Ltd is A$4.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026