Ovintiv Inc (OVV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ovintiv Inc stock $48.46, price $60.91, that is 20.4% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.92 – $72.62 · fair‑value band $37.78 – $63.00 · the $60.91 price screens above the $48.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Ovintiv Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in North America. The company operates through USA Operations and Canadian Operations segments.
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It is involved in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other related activities in the Permian in West Texas and Anadarko in West-central Oklahoma in the United States, as well as in northwest Alberta and northeast British Columbia.
The company was formerly known as Encana Corporation and changed its name to Ovintiv Inc. in January 2020. Ovintiv Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Ovintiv Inc (OVV) currently trades at $60.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.46, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $58.10 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the $60.91 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $12.13, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $37.78 (bear) to $63.00 (bull), the price of $60.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ovintiv Inc reported revenue of $8.7B in FY2025 versus $8.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.2B Large · P/E ratio 17.3 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) $3.52 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −20%, OVV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$37.78Fair Value $48.46Bull$63.00
Price $60.91 · Downside -20.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.97 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleHoward John MaysonDirector5,000 shares at $52.39$261,950Mar 3, 2026
SaleGregory Dean GivensEVP & COO2× since Dec 4, 2025: 100,000 shares, avg. $41.42$4.1MDec 12, 2025
SaleSteven W NanceDirector5,000 shares at $41.99$209,950Dec 8, 2025
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+24.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.0% vs −14.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−89% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.2% a year for the price and −6.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Ovintiv gains from its focused Permian and Montney operations with years of drilling inventory but suffers from a limited durable moat typical for E&P commodity producers exposed to price swings.
Main risk: Regulatory actions such as the EPA Clean Air Act settlement could require costly facility upgrades and ongoing compliance measures at Ovintiv's production sites, increasing operating expenses and constraining margins.
Bull case: Ovintiv could adopt advanced emissions control technologies and operational efficiencies to meet or exceed regulatory standards ahead of peers, potentially securing permits more easily and maintaining production levels in key basins.
Bear case: Persistent or tightening environmental regulations and enforcement actions could force repeated capital expenditures on compliance, limit drilling activity in certain areas or lead to operational restrictions that reduce output and cash flow over time.
Ovintiv renewed its buyback program to return at least 60 percent of annual free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and repurchases. After exiting non-core basins, its operations now center on the Permian and Montney with years of drilling inventory ahead. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will disciplined capital returns support the valuation, or will limited growth from the focused asset base create pressure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Return on assets6.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)36.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ovintiv Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OVV
Frequently asked questions
Is Ovintiv Inc (OVV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.46 versus a price of $60.91, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OVV?
Our model-based fair value for Ovintiv Inc is $48.46 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $60.91.
What is the quality score of OVV?
Ovintiv Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.46 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.78, optimistic scenario $63.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ovintiv Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.46, about 20% lower versus a price of $60.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $37.78, optimistic scenario $63.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
Ovintiv Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Ovintiv Inc pay a dividend?
Ovintiv Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ovintiv Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OVV use?
Our models discount Ovintiv Inc at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ovintiv Inc that is +0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ovintiv Inc (OVV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ovintiv Inc grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ovintiv Inc (OVV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ovintiv Inc (+0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.77 %: that much free cash flow Ovintiv Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ovintiv Inc it is $48.46 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $60.91. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ovintiv Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, OVV trades above its calculated fair value: price $60.91, fair value $48.46, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OVV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($60.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.46). For Ovintiv Inc the two are $12.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ovintiv Inc worth?
The market values Ovintiv Inc at about $17.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $60.91; our models calculate a fair value of $48.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OVV?
Our models span a range for Ovintiv Inc: cautious scenario $37.78, base $48.46, optimistic $63.00 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $60.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OVV?
Ovintiv Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.46 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2024, FY2025 ex one-offs: 6.3. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of OVV?
The PEG ratio of Ovintiv Inc is 3.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ovintiv Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OVV from its 52-week high?
Ovintiv Inc trades at $60.91, about 16% below its 52-week high of $72.62 and 70% above the low of $35.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ovintiv Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ovintiv Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $60.91, calculated fair value $48.46 (−20%), Quality Score 40/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OVV calculated?
We run Ovintiv Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Ovintiv Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $60.91. Our model-based fair value is $48.46, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ovintiv Inc right now?
Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Ovintiv Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The market capitalisation of Ovintiv Inc is $17.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ovintiv Inc is 1.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
Earnings per share at Ovintiv Inc are $3.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The dividend yield of Ovintiv Inc is 2.0% (payout 34.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The net margin of Ovintiv Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ovintiv Inc is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ovintiv Inc is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
The operating margin of Ovintiv Inc is 36.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
Revenue at Ovintiv Inc is growing +29.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ovintiv Inc (OVV)?
Earnings per share at Ovintiv Inc are growing +37.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ovintiv Inc (OVV) carry?
The net debt of Ovintiv Inc is $7.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026