Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA stock $15.70, price $18.80, that is 16.5% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.99 – $26.16 · fair‑value band $12.35 – $20.97 · the $18.80 price screens above the $15.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally.
Show moreShow less
It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies.
The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries.
Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies.
The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products.
It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons.
In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR) currently trades at $18.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.70, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.70 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the $18.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.63, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.35 (bear) to $20.97 (bull), the price of $18.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR reported revenue of $90.8B in FY2025 versus $84.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $20.1B in FY2025, compounding +0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $165B Large · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) $3.89 · Net margin 22.1% · Return on equity 30.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.8% · Operating margin 44.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −16%, PBR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.35Fair Value $15.70Bull$20.97
Price $18.80 · Downside -16.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1894 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$23.14$32.20$48.6776
Growth DCF$24.08$32.86$47.6275
Owner Earnings$14.32$20.30$31.1673
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$23.14$32.20$48.6776
Owner Earnings$14.32$20.30$31.1673
5Y Revenue Exit$13.89$19.31$27.0170
5Y EBITDA Exit$22.58$34.15$49.1772
5Y P/E Exit$24.64$37.67$52.8767
10Y Revenue Exit$16.96$22.22$28.0165
10Y EBITDA Exit$22.58$31.94$42.5766
10Y P/E Exit$23.83$34.25$45.0062
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$21.23$37.19$45.6362
EPV$24.29$28.69$32.5172
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$11.53$14.68$17.8865
DDM Multi-Stage$11.53$15.52$20.3063
Multiples
P/E Multiple$32.79$43.71$54.6461
P/S Multiple$12.70$16.93$21.1656
P/B Multiple$15.38$20.51$25.6453
EV/EBIT$20.41$30.50$40.6064
EV/EBITDA$19.06$28.71$38.3565
EV/Revenue$1.97$7.05$12.1348
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$5.70$7.63$11.4052
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$24.08$32.86$47.6275
Rev-Margin DCF$13.89$19.82$27.3370
Economic Profit
Residual Income$17.57$20.74$30.2772
ROIC Compounder$24.82$30.08$35.5069
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$23.59$33.70$43.8164
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.7% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 29%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.6% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: Frontier exploration successes strengthen long-term reserve replacement, yet state ownership and political interference remain the central limits on durable advantage.
Main risk: A faster shift to renewables and electric vehicles could cut demand for Petrobras oil and gas, leaving new exploration blocks and production assets with lower returns or stranded.
Bull case: Petrobras could use cash from pre-salt fields to scale biofuels, hydrogen and carbon capture while maintaining output in lower-carbon operations.
Bear case: A faster than expected fall in global oil demand could make many new blocks and platforms uneconomic and force cuts in investment and output.
Petrobras has now confirmed three separate oil-bearing intervals in the single Morpho well off Amapá after completing drilling and data acquisition there. The finds reinforce its push into the Equatorial Margin as a long-term reserve replacement strategy. With our models seeing the stock as overvalued, does the technical persistence in frontier exploration ultimately strengthen the business more than political and operational pressures limit it?
Compare Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)24.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)44.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)42.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)19.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PBR
Frequently asked questions
Is Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.70 versus a price of $18.80, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PBR?
Our model-based fair value for Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is $15.70 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.80.
What is the quality score of PBR?
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.70 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.35, optimistic scenario $20.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.70, about 16% lower versus a price of $18.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.35, optimistic scenario $20.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PBR use?
Our models discount Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR that is -7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies -7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR (-7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.82 %: that much free cash flow Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR it is $15.70 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $18.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PBR trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.80, fair value $15.70, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PBR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.70). For Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR the two are $3.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR worth?
The market values Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR at about $165B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $18.80; our models calculate a fair value of $15.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PBR?
Our models span a range for Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR: cautious scenario $12.35, base $15.70, optimistic $20.97 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $18.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PBR?
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of PBR?
The PEG ratio of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is 6.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 30.3%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PBR from its 52-week high?
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR trades at $18.80, about 28% below its 52-week high of $26.16 and 73% above the low of $10.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $18.80, calculated fair value $15.70 (−16%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PBR calculated?
We run Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $18.80. Our model-based fair value is $15.70, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
The market capitalisation of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is $165B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is 1.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
Earnings per share at Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR are $3.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
The net margin of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is 22.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is 30.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is 18.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
The operating margin of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
Revenue at Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is growing +42.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR)?
Earnings per share at Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR are growing +96.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (PBR) carry?
The net debt of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR is $63.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 5, 2026