Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Publicis Groupe SA stock €146, price €105, upside +38.8%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €35.54 – €104.90 · fair‑value band €109.22 – €182.03 · the €104.90 price screens below the €145.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Publicis Groupe S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides marketing, communications, and digital business transformation services in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, and internationally.
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The company offers power of one, publicis communications; publicis sapient; publicis media; publicis health; and other services. Publicis Groupe S.A. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) currently trades at €104.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €145.63, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €181.39 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the €104.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €53.15, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €109.22 (bear) to €182.03 (bull), the price of €104.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Publicis Groupe SA reported revenue of €17.4B in FY2025 versus €11.7B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was €1.7B in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €26.4B Large · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 1.50 · EPS (TTM) €6.42 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 39%, PUB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€109.22Fair Value €145.63Bull€182.03
Price €104.90 · Upside +38.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.9% vs 6.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.9% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Publicis builds AI strength through its Microsoft partnership equipping staff with Copilot and Azure tools while acting as a complement to big tech, yet lacks any clear durable moat and struggles to scale AI into measurable client value.
Main risk: Generative AI tools from platforms and self-service options might enable clients to handle ad creation, production and media buying in-house or more cheaply, reducing demand for traditional agency services and pressuring margins.
Bull case: By combining its data assets like Epsilon with Sapient consulting and Microsoft tools Publicis could become the preferred partner for clients needing integrated enterprise AI marketing systems that standalone platforms cannot fully deliver.
Bear case: If generative AI drives widespread client in-housing and commoditisation of creative and media work while regulatory limits curb data advantages Publicis could face sharply lower demand for its core offerings and sustained margin pressure.
Publicis is deepening its AI capabilities through a broad Microsoft partnership that equips all employees with Copilot and Azure tools while positioning the group as a complement to big tech rather than a rival. Executives acknowledge that scaling AI to deliver measurable value for clients is proving harder than expected in most cases. Our models see the stock as undervalued, yet will the group capture more upside from AI than it loses in legacy service margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 176 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+38.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.53× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.50× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.7× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Publicis Groupe SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PUB
Frequently asked questions
Is Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €145.63 versus a price of €104.90, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PUB?
Our model-based fair value for Publicis Groupe SA is €145.63 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €104.90.
What is the quality score of PUB?
Publicis Groupe SA has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €145.63 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €109.22, optimistic scenario €182.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Publicis Groupe SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €145.63, about +39% upside versus a price of €104.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €109.22, optimistic scenario €182.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
Publicis Groupe SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €17.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Publicis Groupe SA pay a dividend?
Publicis Groupe SA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.57% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Publicis Groupe SA would have to grow free cash flow by -5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PUB use?
Our models discount Publicis Groupe SA at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Publicis Groupe SA that is -5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Publicis Groupe SA grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Publicis Groupe SA (-5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.30 %: that much free cash flow Publicis Groupe SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Publicis Groupe SA it is €145.63 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €104.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Publicis Groupe SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PUB trades below its calculated fair value: price €104.90, fair value €145.63, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PUB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€104.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€145.63). For Publicis Groupe SA the two are €40.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Publicis Groupe SA worth?
The market values Publicis Groupe SA at about €26.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €104.90; our models calculate a fair value of €145.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PUB?
Our models span a range for Publicis Groupe SA: cautious scenario €109.22, base €145.63, optimistic €182.03 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €104.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PUB?
Publicis Groupe SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €145.63 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PUB?
The PEG ratio of Publicis Groupe SA is 1.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Publicis Groupe SA (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 16.2%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PUB from its 52-week high?
Publicis Groupe SA trades at €104.90, at its 52-week high of €104.90 and 60% above the low of €65.59 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €145.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Publicis Groupe SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, The Trade Desk, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Publicis Groupe SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €104.90, calculated fair value €145.63 (+39%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PUB calculated?
We run Publicis Groupe SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €145.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Publicis Groupe SA currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €104.90. Our model-based fair value is €145.63, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Publicis Groupe SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€109.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) come from?
Earnings per share at Publicis Groupe SA grew +5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Publicis Groupe SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The market capitalisation of Publicis Groupe SA is €26.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Publicis Groupe SA is 1.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
Earnings per share at Publicis Groupe SA are €6.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The dividend yield of Publicis Groupe SA is 3.6% (payout 58.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The net margin of Publicis Groupe SA is 9.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Publicis Groupe SA is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Publicis Groupe SA is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
The operating margin of Publicis Groupe SA is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
Revenue at Publicis Groupe SA is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Publicis Groupe SA (PUB)?
Earnings per share at Publicis Groupe SA are growing −3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) carry?
The net debt of Publicis Groupe SA is €1.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026