Stagwell Inc (STGW) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $1.7B
Stagwell Inc
STGW · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +19.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.39 to $2.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.02 – $10.61 · fair‑value band $1.39 – $2.75 · the $9.17 price screens above the $2.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Stagwell Inc (STGW) currently trades at $9.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.19, implying the stock looks roughly 76.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Stagwell Inc generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.9%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.39 (bear case) to $2.75 (bull case); at $9.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -76%, STGW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($7.83) versus Earnings-Based ($1.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Stagwell Inc. provides digital transformation, marketing, media and commerce, marketing cloud, and communications services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Stagwell Inc. provides digital transformation, marketing, media and commerce, marketing cloud, and communications services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers creative, research, experiential, and social media solutions designed to build and elevate brands; and consumer insights through advanced research methodologies, creating immersive experiential marketing programs and social engagement strategies that connect brands with audiences across digital platforms. It also designs, implements, and activates digital ecosystems that enable brand and customer experiences through the integration of strategy, design, and technology; provides managed services, staff augmentation, and engineering expertise across various delivery models, offering system integration, full-stack development, and ongoing platform management; and provides digital transformation that connects digital ecosystems to physical experiences through innovative, technology-driven customer engagements. In addition, the company offers integrated AI-based data solutions that drive audience engagement and business growth through media buying, owned media platforms, commerce enablement, and customer relationship management strategies; specialized media platforms and translation services to support targeted communication and market expansion; an edge set of solutions designed to help organizations build, protect, and enhance their reputation across diverse audiences and channels; and expertise in targeted communications, crisis management, and stakeholder engagement services. Further, the company provides a suite of technology solutions for in-house marketers and combining SaaS and DaaS offerings. Stagwell Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Stagwell Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was $29.1M in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.
STGW screens 76% overvalued. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Stagwell (STGW) Is Up 13.9% After Raising EPS Outlook On Stronger Organic And AI-Driven Growth
- Stagwell Inc (STGW) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and AI-Driven Growth ...
- Stagwell raises full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $1.03-$1.17 while maintaining $475M-$525M adjusted EBITDA target
- Stagwell (STGW) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 199 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $506.98 | $181.37 | -64% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €87.16 | €146.36 | +68% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $80.75 | $99.84 | +24% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.00 | ¥4.08 | -18% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $19.37 | $20.76 | +7% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.81 | ¥1.50 | -89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €21.28 | €20.99 | -1% |
| WPP plc WPP | $18.13 | $18.56 | +2% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥28.85 | ¥5.62 | -81% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.15 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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