Rio Tinto (RIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rio Tinto stock $75.91, price $81.89, that is 7.3% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Solidly profitable · 19.6% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(10/15)
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +16%, profit +47%.
Fair value $75.91 · Fairly valued (−7.3%)
Quality 55/100
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr in USD)
5.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Wide moat71/100 · thin data
Insider activity40/100
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Iron ore price weakness from weaker Chinese demand and added global supply🚩CMRG could pressure iron ore contract terms🚩Chinese miners could add high-grade supply
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.36 – $109.63 · fair‑value band $44.12 – $113.45 · the $81.89 price screens above the $75.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia.
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The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium.
The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities.
The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Rio Tinto (RIO) currently trades at $81.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.91, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $98.82 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $81.89 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.07, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $44.12 (bear) to $113.45 (bull), the price of $81.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rio Tinto ADR reported revenue of $57.8B in FY2025 versus $63.5B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was $10.0B in FY2025, compounding −17.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $146B Large · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 2.36 · EPS (TTM) $7.38 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 19.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −7%, RIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$44.12Fair Value $75.91Bull$113.45
Price $81.89 · Downside -7.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.29 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.3% vs 7.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Large-scale mining assets enable robust output volumes in iron ore and copper, yet limited differentiation and pricing power leave results tied to commodity cycles.
Main risk: China Mineral Resources Group as the centralised state buyer could force less favourable volumes or pricing on Rio Tinto's iron ore shipments to Chinese steel mills, squeezing margins on its largest revenue segment.
Bull case: Rio Tinto could leverage its stake in Simandou and growing copper and aluminium exposure to AI-driven power demand to offset any margin pressure from Chinese buyers through higher-value product mixes and diversified revenue.
Bear case: If CMRG consolidates further control over Chinese purchases and additional high-grade supply from rivals floods the market, Rio Tinto's iron ore margins could compress materially while its aluminium operations face ongoing energy cost and contract risks.
Rio Tinto posted stronger third-quarter iron ore sales and a 27 percent jump in copper production at Oyu Tolgoi while keeping full-year guidance intact. Its business still draws the bulk of earnings from iron ore, however, where prices have fallen on weaker Chinese demand and added global supply. Will productivity improvements and the new Kangwinan bauxite project deliver enough diversification, or will iron ore price swings continue to set the pace for results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 364 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−7.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $75.91 versus a price of $81.89, about 7% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of RIO?
Our model-based fair value for Rio Tinto ADR is $75.91 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $81.89.
What is the quality score of RIO?
Rio Tinto ADR has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rio Tinto (RIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $75.91 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.12, optimistic scenario $113.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rio Tinto ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $75.91, about 7% lower versus a price of $81.89 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $44.12, optimistic scenario $113.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
Rio Tinto ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $61.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Rio Tinto ADR pay a dividend?
Rio Tinto ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 5.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rio Tinto (RIO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rio Tinto ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RIO use?
Our models discount Rio Tinto ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rio Tinto ADR that is +13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rio Tinto (RIO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rio Tinto ADR grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rio Tinto (RIO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rio Tinto ADR (+13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.59 %: that much free cash flow Rio Tinto ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rio Tinto ADR it is $75.91 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $81.89. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rio Tinto ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, RIO trades above its calculated fair value: price $81.89, fair value $75.91, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($81.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($75.91). For Rio Tinto ADR the two are $5.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rio Tinto ADR worth?
The market values Rio Tinto ADR at about $146B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $81.89; our models calculate a fair value of $75.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIO?
Our models span a range for Rio Tinto ADR: cautious scenario $44.12, base $75.91, optimistic $113.45 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $81.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RIO?
Rio Tinto ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $75.91 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 10.4. Other multiples: PEG 5.7, P/B 2.3, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of RIO?
The PEG ratio of Rio Tinto ADR is 5.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rio Tinto ADR (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 19.3%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RIO from its 52-week high?
Rio Tinto ADR trades at $81.89, about 25% below its 52-week high of $109.63 and 27% above the low of $64.62 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $75.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rio Tinto ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Boliden AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rio Tinto ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $81.89, calculated fair value $75.91 (−7%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIO calculated?
We run Rio Tinto ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $75.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Rio Tinto ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $81.89. Our model-based fair value is $75.91, about 7% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rio Tinto ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($44.12 to $113.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Rio Tinto (RIO) come from?
Earnings per share at Rio Tinto ADR grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rio Tinto ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The market capitalisation of Rio Tinto ADR is $146B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rio Tinto ADR is 2.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
Earnings per share at Rio Tinto ADR are $7.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The dividend yield of Rio Tinto ADR is 5.7% (payout 63.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The net margin of Rio Tinto ADR is 19.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rio Tinto ADR is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rio Tinto ADR is 18.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rio Tinto (RIO)?
The operating margin of Rio Tinto ADR is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rio Tinto (RIO)?
Revenue at Rio Tinto ADR is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rio Tinto (RIO)?
Earnings per share at Rio Tinto ADR are growing +46.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Rio Tinto (RIO) carry?
The net debt of Rio Tinto ADR is $15.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026