Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc stock $217, price $197, upside +10.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $74.26 – $210.95 · fair‑value band $151.31 – $299.31 · the $196.89 price screens below the $216.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells structural solutions for wood, concrete, and steel connections in the North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
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The company provides structural products for wood construction, such as connectors, fasteners, and lateral-force resisting systems; anchor, repair, protection and strengthening products including coatings, sealers, mortars, fiberglass and fiber-reinforced polymer systems and asphalt products.
In addition, the company offers engineering and design services, as well as software solutions. It markets its products to the residential construction, industrial, commercial and infrastructure construction, remodeling and do-it-yourself markets. It offers engineering and design services.
It serves its products to dealers, home centers, wood component manufacturers, OEM-relationships, distributors, and contractors industries. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.
Stock analysis
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) currently trades at $196.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $216.58, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $142.69 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $196.89 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $74.29, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $151.31 (bear) to $299.31 (bull), the price of $196.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was $345M in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.1B Mid · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 3.34 · EPS (TTM) $9.15 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 10%, SSD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$151.31Fair Value $216.58Bull$299.31
Price $196.89 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.82 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $761,782 and none bought.
SaleMichael OloskyPresident and CEO, Director3,502 shares at $172.84$605,286Sep 10, 2026
SaleJames S AndrasickDirector2× since Nov 11, 2025: 1,400 shares, avg. $184.64$258,496Aug 4, 2026
SalePhilip E DonaldsonDirector2,375 shares at $168.16$399,380Dec 12, 2025
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.1% vs 19.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.7% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate profitability metrics in wood construction connectors form the main strength, while thin evidence of durable advantages and sector cyclicality represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Fluctuations in steel prices, the main raw material for connectors and fasteners with no hedging, could increase production costs and pressure margins if price increases cannot fully offset them.
Bull case: By investing in domestic manufacturing capacity and software tools the company could reduce import reliance and help customers optimize usage to offset higher material costs.
Bear case: Persistent high steel prices combined with tariffs might force repeated price hikes that slow volume growth or allow rivals to gain share in price-sensitive segments.
Simpson Manufacturing shifted the closing of its Stockton land sale into the fourth quarter due to administrative delays, moving the related gain accordingly while leaving full-year guidance unchanged. This non-operating item masks whether core operations in wood construction connectors are holding up amid softer housing volumes. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but will steady margins and pricing power deliver more than the timing noise implies?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SSD
Frequently asked questions
Is Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $216.58 versus a price of $196.89, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SSD?
Our model-based fair value for Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is $216.58 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $196.89.
What is the quality score of SSD?
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $216.58 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $151.31, optimistic scenario $299.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $216.58, about +10% upside versus a price of $196.89 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $151.31, optimistic scenario $299.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc pay a dividend?
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.59% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc pays a dividend of $1.17 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.6%. The next ex-dividend date is Jan 7, 2027, with payment on Jan 28, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2004. The payout ratio is 12.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.17 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.0 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSD use?
Our models discount Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc that is +17.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc grew +13.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (+17.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.66 %: that much free cash flow Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc it is $216.58 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $196.89. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SSD trades below its calculated fair value: price $196.89, fair value $216.58, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($196.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($216.58). For Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc the two are $19.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc worth?
The market values Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc at about $8.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $196.89; our models calculate a fair value of $216.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSD?
Our models span a range for Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc: cautious scenario $151.31, base $216.58, optimistic $299.31 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $196.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SSD?
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $216.58 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018 ex one-offs: 22.3. Other multiples: PEG 3.8, P/B 4.0, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 13.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SSD?
The PEG ratio of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is 3.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSD from its 52-week high?
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc trades at $196.89, about 6% below its 52-week high of $209.38 and 25% above the low of $156.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $216.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Stella-Jones Inc, Zhongfu Straits (Pingtan) Development Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $196.89, calculated fair value $216.58 (+10%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSD calculated?
We run Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $216.58 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $196.89. Our model-based fair value is $216.58, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($151.31 to $299.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) come from?
Earnings per share at Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc grew +20.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.0 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The market capitalisation of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is $8.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is 3.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
Earnings per share at Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc are $9.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The dividend yield of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is 0.6% (payout 12.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The net margin of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is 15.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is 18.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
The operating margin of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
Revenue at Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD)?
Earnings per share at Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc are growing +25.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc (SSD) carry?
The net debt of Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc is $103M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026