Santos Ltd (STO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Santos Ltd stock A$4.48, price A$8.56, that is 47.7% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.68 – A$9.32 · fair‑value band A$3.13 – A$5.82 · the A$8.56 price screens above the A$4.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia.
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It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies. In addition, the company produces crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, ethane, liquefied natural gas, and condensate, as well as natural gas. Santos Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Stock analysis
Santos Ltd (STO) currently trades at A$8.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.48, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$5.21 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$8.56 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$1.68, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$3.13 (bear) to A$5.82 (bull), the price of A$8.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Santos Ltd reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $847M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$27.9B (≈ $19.6B) Large · P/E ratio 25.7 · P/S ratio 4.14 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3400 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, STO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$3.13Fair Value A$4.48BullA$5.82
Price A$8.56 · Downside -47.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0275 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 27%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.8% a year for the price and +10.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The upstream energy firm shows strength in expanding LNG exposure to Asian markets through projects like Papua LNG, yet its main weakness lies in thin evidence of a durable moat amid heavy commodity price dependence.
Main risk: A proposed Australian gas reservation policy from July 2027 could require LNG exporters including Santos to supply domestic gas equivalent to 20% of exports, potentially reducing volumes or margins for its Gladstone and Darwin LNG facilities.
Bull case: Santos could navigate the Australian reservation policy through domestic supply contracts or efficiency gains while securing alternative financing for Papua LNG via its strengthened partnership with ExxonMobil and long-term Asian offtake agreements.
Bear case: If regulatory hurdles intensify, the Australian reservation policy and PNG financing refusals could force project delays or scaled-back LNG output, eroding expected volume growth from Barossa, Pikka and Papua LNG expansions.
Santos is increasing its stake in the Papua LNG project to expand exposure to Asian demand while new developments like Pikka and Barossa ramp output. Yet our models currently see the shares as overvalued given the execution risks in these projects. Will the added LNG volumes deliver lasting value creation or will commissioning costs and market volatility erode the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−47.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.7% · Below median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)14.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.25× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.93× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow30.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.83× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)8· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)72· sector 76
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Santos Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STO
Frequently asked questions
Is Santos Ltd (STO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.48 versus a price of A$8.56, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STO?
Our model-based fair value for Santos Ltd is A$4.48 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$8.56.
What is the quality score of STO?
Santos Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Santos Ltd (STO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.48 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.13, optimistic scenario A$5.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Santos Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.48, about 48% lower versus a price of A$8.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.13, optimistic scenario A$5.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Santos Ltd (STO)?
Santos Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Santos Ltd pay a dividend?
Santos Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.59% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Santos Ltd (STO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Santos Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +19.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STO use?
Our models discount Santos Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Santos Ltd that is +19.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Santos Ltd (STO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Santos Ltd grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +19.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Santos Ltd (STO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Santos Ltd (+19.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.29 %: that much free cash flow Santos Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Santos Ltd (STO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Santos Ltd it is A$4.48 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$8.56. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Santos Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, STO trades above its calculated fair value: price A$8.56, fair value A$4.48, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$8.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.48). For Santos Ltd the two are A$4.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Santos Ltd worth?
The market values Santos Ltd at about A$27.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$8.56; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STO?
Our models span a range for Santos Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.13, base A$4.48, optimistic A$5.82 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$8.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STO?
Santos Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.3, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
What is the PEG ratio of STO?
The PEG ratio of Santos Ltd is 0.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Santos Ltd (STO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Santos Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STO from its 52-week high?
Santos Ltd trades at A$8.56, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$9.32 and 51% above the low of A$5.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Santos Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Santos Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$8.56, calculated fair value A$4.48 (−48%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STO calculated?
We run Santos Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Santos Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was A$8.56. Our model-based fair value is A$4.48, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Santos Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$3.13 to A$5.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Santos Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The market capitalisation of Santos Ltd is A$27.9B (≈ $19.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Santos Ltd is 4.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Santos Ltd (STO)?
Earnings per share at Santos Ltd are A$0.3400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The dividend yield of Santos Ltd is 3.6% (payout 90.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The net margin of Santos Ltd is 16.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Santos Ltd is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Santos Ltd (STO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Santos Ltd is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Santos Ltd (STO)?
The operating margin of Santos Ltd is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Santos Ltd (STO)?
Revenue at Santos Ltd is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Santos Ltd (STO)?
Earnings per share at Santos Ltd are growing −19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Santos Ltd (STO) carry?
The net debt of Santos Ltd is $7.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026