Santos Limited (STO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$24.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +7.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.78 – A$8.24 · fair‑value band A$2.41 – A$4.06 · the A$7.63 price screens above the A$3.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Santos Limited (STO) currently trades at A$7.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.23, implying the stock looks roughly 57.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Santos Limited generated revenue of A$4.9B at a net margin of 16.6%. Revenue declined 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at A$7.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.41 (bear case) to A$4.06 (bull case); at A$7.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -58%, STO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$4.43) versus Growth DCF (A$1.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia. It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies.
Full company description
Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia. It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies. In addition, the company produces crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, ethane, liquefied natural gas, and condensate, as well as natural gas. Santos Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Santos Limited reported revenue of A$5.3B in FY2025 versus A$4.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$847M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
STO screens 58% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Santos Narrows 2026 Production Forecast
- Santos Holds Guidance as Barossa Nears Startup and Pikka First Oil Looms
- Santos CFO Sherry Duhe Resigns
- Santos Starts Barossa Project Days After Failed $19 Billion Sale
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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