TC Energy Corp (TRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TC Energy Corp stock $17.54, price $64.50, that is 72.8% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.19 – $69.84 · fair‑value band $17.54 – $21.93 · the $64.50 price screens above the $17.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; and Power and Energy Solutions.
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The company builds and operates a network of 94,171 kilometers of natural gas pipelines, which transports natural gas from supply basins to local distribution companies, power generation plants, industrial facilities, interconnecting pipelines, LNG export terminals, and other businesses.
It also has regulated natural gas storage facilities with a total working gas capacity of 532 billion cubic feet.
In addition, the company owns or has interests in power generation facilities with approximately 4,650 megawatts; and owns and operates approximately 118 billion cubic feet of non-regulated natural gas storage facilities in Alberta, Ontario, Québec, and New Brunswick.
The company was formerly known as TransCanada Corporation and changed its name to TC Energy Corporation in May 2019. TC Energy Corporation was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
TC Energy Corp (TRP) currently trades at $64.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.54, 72.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $33.72 per share, and 0 of the 19 models we run sit above the $64.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.44, and 19 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.54 (bear) to $21.93 (bull), the price of $64.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
TC Energy Corp reported revenue of $15.2B in FY2025 versus $13.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.5B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $67.2B Large · P/E ratio 25.4 · P/S ratio 5.88 · EPS (TTM) $2.54 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 23.2% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −73%, TRP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.2200 to $41.31). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$17.54Fair Value $17.54Bull$21.93
Price $64.50 · Downside -72.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0888 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.3% vs 8.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 44%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.4% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Stable regulated cash flows from midstream infrastructure provide the main strength while limited durable moat and high leverage remain the central constraints.
Main risk: Regulatory hurdles, stop-work orders or lawsuits from First Nations groups could delay expansions such as Coastal GasLink Phase 2 and increase costs, reducing revenues from added capacity.
Bull case: By completing indigenous equity partnerships and securing long-term contracts the company could speed up approvals and benefit from rising North American gas demand for power and exports.
Bear case: Ongoing permitting challenges or subdued LNG export growth might leave expansion investments underutilised and constrain cash flows from export-linked pipelines.
TC Energy is advancing Coastal GasLink Phase 2, which will nearly double the existing pipeline's capacity through compressor stations and upgrades on the current route after LNG Canada's expansion decision. Construction is slated to begin in early 2027 with the expanded system entering service in the early 2030s. This leverages its midstream role connecting Canadian gas to export markets but ties more of the outlook to LNG volumes. Does the project extend the reach of its stable network assets or heighten reliance on long-cycle export demand?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−72.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.8% · Below median
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)22.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)44.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.11× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.46× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.28× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow32.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Pricier than median
PEG2.97× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)29· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)75· sector 80
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TC Energy Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRP
Frequently asked questions
Is TC Energy Corp (TRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.54 versus a price of $64.50, about 73% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRP?
Our model-based fair value for TC Energy Corp is $17.54 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $64.50.
What is the quality score of TRP?
TC Energy Corp has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.54 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.54, optimistic scenario $21.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TC Energy Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.54, about 73% lower versus a price of $64.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.54, optimistic scenario $21.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
TC Energy Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does TC Energy Corp pay a dividend?
TC Energy Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TC Energy Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +29.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRP use?
Our models discount TC Energy Corp at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TC Energy Corp that is +29.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TC Energy Corp (TRP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TC Energy Corp grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +29.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TC Energy Corp (TRP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TC Energy Corp (+29.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.07 %: that much free cash flow TC Energy Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TC Energy Corp it is $17.54 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $64.50. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TC Energy Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, TRP trades above its calculated fair value: price $64.50, fair value $17.54, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.54). For TC Energy Corp the two are $46.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TC Energy Corp worth?
The market values TC Energy Corp at about $67.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $64.50; our models calculate a fair value of $17.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRP?
Our models span a range for TC Energy Corp: cautious scenario $17.54, base $17.54, optimistic $21.93 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $64.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRP?
TC Energy Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 2.5, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TRP?
The PEG ratio of TC Energy Corp is 2.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
Balance-sheet figures for TC Energy Corp (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 2.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRP from its 52-week high?
TC Energy Corp trades at $64.50, about 8% below its 52-week high of $69.84 and 35% above the low of $47.79 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TC Energy Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TC Energy Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $64.50, calculated fair value $17.54 (−73%), Quality Score 52/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRP calculated?
We run TC Energy Corp through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. TC Energy Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $64.50. Our model-based fair value is $17.54, about 73% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TC Energy Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of TC Energy Corp (TRP) come from?
Earnings per share at TC Energy Corp grew +10.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.4 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TC Energy Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The market capitalisation of TC Energy Corp is $67.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TC Energy Corp is 5.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
Earnings per share at TC Energy Corp are $2.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The dividend yield of TC Energy Corp is 3.8% (payout 95.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The net margin of TC Energy Corp is 23.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TC Energy Corp is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TC Energy Corp is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
The operating margin of TC Energy Corp is 44.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
Revenue at TC Energy Corp is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TC Energy Corp (TRP)?
Earnings per share at TC Energy Corp are growing +18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TC Energy Corp (TRP) carry?
The net debt of TC Energy Corp is $60.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026