Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Timberland Bancorp Inc stock $35.47, price $47.96, that is 26.0% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.36 – $48.16 · fair‑value band $31.66 – $46.81 · the $47.96 price screens above the $35.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Follow Timberland Bancorp in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Timberland Bancorp is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Timberland Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Timberland Bank that provides various community banking services in Washington. It offers various deposit products, including money market deposit, checking, and regular savings accounts, as well as certificates of deposit.
Show moreShow less
The company also provides one-to four-family residential, multi-family, commercial real estate loans, and land loans; and construction lending products, such as custom and owner/builder, speculative one- to four-family, commercial, multi-family, and land development.
In addition, it offers consumer loans comprising home equity lines of credit and second mortgage loans, automobile loans, boat loans, motorcycle loans, recreational vehicle loans, savings account loans, and unsecured loans; and commercial business loans.
The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Hoquiam, Washington.
Stock analysis
Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) currently trades at $47.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.47, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $45.96 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $47.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.49, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $31.66 (bear) to $46.81 (bull), the price of $47.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Timberland Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $119M in FY2026 versus $67.3M in FY2022, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $31.2M in FY2026, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $377M Small · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 4.38 · EPS (TTM) $3.96 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 36.3% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −26%, TSBK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$31.66Fair Value $35.47Bull$46.81
Price $47.96 · Downside -26.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3068 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $534,134 and none bought.
SaleJonathan Arthur FischerPresident/COO2× since Feb 5, 2026: 4,000 shares, avg. $43.63$174,520Nov 5, 2026
SaleAndrea M ClintonDirector2× since Jan 30, 2026: 2,000 shares, avg. $41.05$82,092Nov 4, 2026
SaleRobert A DruggeDirector2,000 shares at $45.87$91,740Aug 18, 2026
SaleBreanne D AntichChief Technology Officer/EVP3× since Feb 6, 2026: 1,099 shares, avg. $41.54$45,656Aug 18, 2026
SaleDean J BrydonCEO, Director3,000 shares at $45.24$135,720Aug 3, 2026
SaleMatthew Douglas SeathChief Risk Officer/EVP3,000 shares at $44.75$134,250Jul 31, 2026
SaleDavid Alan SmithDirector1,000 shares at $43.90$43,900Jun 23, 2026
SaleMarci A BasichChief Financial Officer/EVP2× since Feb 2, 2026: 5,200 shares, avg. $39.52$205,487Feb 5, 2026
SaleMatthew J DeBordChief Lending Officer, EVP2× since Dec 15, 2025: 9,000 shares, avg. $38.36$345,276Feb 2, 2026
SaleMichael John StoneyDirector1,000 shares at $36.99$36,990Dec 11, 2025
Plus 28 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.6% vs 10.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.50% → 33%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (74 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Capital ratio above 20 percent and consistent dividend growth signal resilience for this regional bank, yet higher provisions and net charge-offs point to emerging credit pressures in the loan book.
Main risk: Higher provisions and net charge-offs point to building pressures in the loan portfolio that could reduce margins for this community-focused regional bank.
Timberland posted record full-year earnings per share driven by wider net interest margins and steady loan growth across its Washington markets. The latest quarter, however, showed higher provisions and net charge-offs that pulled results below the prior year once a one-time insurance benefit is stripped out. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Does the bank's capital ratio above 20 percent and consistent dividend growth signal resilience, or do the credit metrics hint at building pressures in the portfolio?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)36.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)47.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.1× · Pricier than median
P/B1.36× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.38× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.94× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)2· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.47 versus a price of $47.96, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TSBK?
Our model-based fair value for Timberland Bancorp Inc is $35.47 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $47.96.
What is the quality score of TSBK?
Timberland Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.47 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $31.66, optimistic scenario $46.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Timberland Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.47, about 26% lower versus a price of $47.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $31.66, optimistic scenario $46.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Timberland Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $85.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Timberland Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Timberland Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Timberland Bancorp Inc pays a dividend of $1.16 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 12, 2026, with payment on Nov 27, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2013. The payout ratio is 29.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Timberland Bancorp Inc it is $35.47 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $47.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Timberland Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, TSBK trades above its calculated fair value: price $47.96, fair value $35.47, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSBK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($47.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.47). For Timberland Bancorp Inc the two are $12.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Timberland Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Timberland Bancorp Inc at about $377M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $47.96; our models calculate a fair value of $35.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSBK?
Our models span a range for Timberland Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $31.66, base $35.47, optimistic $46.81 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $47.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSBK?
Timberland Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 9.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 1.4, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
What is the PEG ratio of TSBK?
The PEG ratio of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 2.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Timberland Bancorp Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSBK from its 52-week high?
Timberland Bancorp Inc trades at $47.96, at its 52-week high of $48.16 and 50% above the low of $31.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Timberland Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Timberland Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $47.96, calculated fair value $35.47 (−26%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSBK calculated?
We run Timberland Bancorp Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $35.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Timberland Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $47.96. Our model-based fair value is $35.47, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Timberland Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) come from?
Earnings per share at Timberland Bancorp Inc grew +9.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Timberland Bancorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The market capitalisation of Timberland Bancorp Inc is $377M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 4.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Earnings per share at Timberland Bancorp Inc are $3.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The dividend yield of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 2.4% (payout 29.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The net margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 36.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
The operating margin of Timberland Bancorp Inc is 47.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Revenue at Timberland Bancorp Inc is growing +0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK)?
Earnings per share at Timberland Bancorp Inc are growing −2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) generate?
The free cash flow of Timberland Bancorp Inc is $28.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Timberland Bancorp Inc (TSBK) hold?
Timberland Bancorp Inc holds more cash than debt, $15.9M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Timberland Bancorp Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Timberland Bancorp Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 4, 2026