Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tradeweb Markets Inc stock $49.65, price $128, that is 61.1% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.33 – $148.02 · fair‑value band $29.43 – $62.07 · the $127.56 price screens above the $49.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Tradeweb Markets Inc. builds and operates electronic marketplaces in the United States and internationally. The company offers marketplaces that facilitate trading products across various asset classes, including rates, credit, equities, and money markets.
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It also provides pre-trade data and analytics, such as AI-Price, SNAP+, iNAV for ETFs, integrations, and LSEG market data; and trade execution comprising request-for-quote, request-for-market, request-for-stream, list trading, compression, blast all-to-all, click-to-trade, portfolio trading, session-based, central limit order book, bilateral firm streams, inventory-based, rematch, voice, futures vs. cash spreading, and dealer algorithmic suite.
In addition, the company offers trade processing; and post-trade data, analytics, and reporting, which include transaction cost analysis, benchmark prices, and APA. It serves institutional, wholesale, retail, and corporate clients, such as asset managers, hedge funds, insurance companies, central banks, banks and dealers, proprietary trading firms, retail brokerage and financial advisory firms, regional dealers, and corporations.
The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Tradeweb Markets Inc. is a subsidiary of Refinitiv Parent Limited.
Stock analysis
Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) currently trades at $127.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.65, 61% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $46.56 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the $127.56 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.61, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $29.43 (bear) to $62.07 (bull), the price of $127.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tradeweb Markets Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was $813M in FY2025, compounding +37.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.1B Large · P/E ratio 29.1 · P/S ratio 11.9 · EPS (TTM) $4.26 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 39.9% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −61%, TW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.11 to $122.80). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$29.43Fair Value $49.65Bull$62.07
Price $127.56 · Downside -61.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.9M and none bought.
SaleEnrico BruniMD, Co-Head of Global Markets2× since Feb 20, 2026: 35,880 shares, avg. $122.87$4.4MNov 3, 2026
SaleTroy DixonMD, Co-Head of Global Markets2× since Mar 20, 2026: 5,714 shares, avg. $114.93$656,731Aug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJustin PetersonChief Technology Officer5× since Feb 10, 2026: 57,913 shares, avg. $113.12$6.6MJun 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSteven BernsDirector425 shares at $105.26$44,736May 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSara FurberChief Financial Officer2× since Feb 10, 2026: 69,653 shares, avg. $116.03$8.1MMar 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDouglas FriedmanChief Legal Officer2× since Feb 10, 2026: 33,360 shares, avg. $116.27$3.9MMar 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAmy ClackChief Administrative Officer2× since Feb 10, 2026: 1,948 shares, avg. $116.22$226,397Mar 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleWilliam HultChief Executive Officer, Director2× since Feb 10, 2026: 193,668 shares, avg. $119.25$23.1MMar 3, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+30.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33.8% vs 24.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 41%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.5% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Tradeweb benefits from strong volume growth via its electronic platform amid the shift from voice trading in fixed income, yet limited public signals leave durability unproven and models see the business as overvalued.
Main risk: Bloomberg or the consolidated ICE-MarketAxess platform could attract more clients to their electronic trading venues, reducing Tradeweb's trading volumes and associated fees in rates and credit markets.
Bull case: Tradeweb could leverage its acquisitions like Trumid and ongoing AI integrations such as TARA to enhance protocols and data services, drawing additional flows from rivals and sustaining volume growth across rates and credit.
Bear case: Intensified competition from Bloomberg and the ICE-MarketAxess entity combined with reduced dealer participation could erode Tradeweb's market share in electronic fixed income trading and lead to stagnant or declining volumes.
Tradeweb continues to see strong volume growth in rates and credit as yields rise and issuance stays elevated. Its electronic platform benefits from the long-term shift away from voice trading in fixed income. Yet our models currently see the business as overvalued. Will expanding electronic adoption drive enough incremental revenue to offset rising costs in technology and expansion, or will margins come under pressure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−61.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.5% · Above median
Return on assets9.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)39.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)43.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity23.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $49.65 versus a price of $127.56, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TW?
Our model-based fair value for Tradeweb Markets Inc is $49.65 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $127.56.
What is the quality score of TW?
Tradeweb Markets Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $49.65 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.43, optimistic scenario $62.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tradeweb Markets Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $49.65, about 61% lower versus a price of $127.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.43, optimistic scenario $62.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
Tradeweb Markets Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Tradeweb Markets Inc pay a dividend?
Tradeweb Markets Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tradeweb Markets Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +44.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.1 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TW use?
Our models discount Tradeweb Markets Inc at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tradeweb Markets Inc that is +44.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tradeweb Markets Inc grew +18.1 % a year. The price currently implies +44.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tradeweb Markets Inc (+44.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.15 %: that much free cash flow Tradeweb Markets Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tradeweb Markets Inc it is $49.65 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $127.56. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tradeweb Markets Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, TW trades above its calculated fair value: price $127.56, fair value $49.65, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($127.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($49.65). For Tradeweb Markets Inc the two are $77.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tradeweb Markets Inc worth?
The market values Tradeweb Markets Inc at about $27.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $127.56; our models calculate a fair value of $49.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TW?
Our models span a range for Tradeweb Markets Inc: cautious scenario $29.43, base $49.65, optimistic $62.07 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $127.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TW?
Tradeweb Markets Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.1 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $49.65 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 36.8 (reported for FY2025: 33.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 44.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 4.2, P/S 11.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TW?
The PEG ratio of Tradeweb Markets Inc is 1.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tradeweb Markets Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 14.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TW from its 52-week high?
Tradeweb Markets Inc trades at $127.56, at its 52-week high of $127.56 and 40% above the low of $91.38 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $49.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tradeweb Markets Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tradeweb Markets Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $127.56, calculated fair value $49.65 (−61%), Quality Score 77/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TW calculated?
We run Tradeweb Markets Inc through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $49.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Tradeweb Markets Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $127.56. Our model-based fair value is $49.65, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tradeweb Markets Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($62.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($29.43 to $62.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Tradeweb Markets Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The market capitalisation of Tradeweb Markets Inc is $27.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tradeweb Markets Inc is 11.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
Earnings per share at Tradeweb Markets Inc are $4.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The dividend yield of Tradeweb Markets Inc is 0.4% (payout 13.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 12.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The net margin of Tradeweb Markets Inc is 39.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tradeweb Markets Inc is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tradeweb Markets Inc is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
The operating margin of Tradeweb Markets Inc is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
Revenue at Tradeweb Markets Inc is growing +14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)?
Earnings per share at Tradeweb Markets Inc are growing +9.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW) hold?
Tradeweb Markets Inc holds more cash than debt, $1.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026