Valaris Ltd (VAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Valaris Ltd stock $58.75, price $79.77, that is 26.4% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.08 – $113.42 · fair‑value band $44.06 – $77.28 · the $79.77 price screens above the $58.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Valaris Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Gulf of America, Australia, Angola, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Floaters, Jackups, ARO, and Other.
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The company owns an offshore drilling rig fleet, which includes drillships, dynamically positioned semisubmersible rigs, a moored semisubmersible rig, and jackup rigs. It also offers management services on rigs owned by third parties.
The company serves international, government-owned, and independent oil and gas companies. Valaris Limited was founded in 1975 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Valaris Ltd (VAL) currently trades at $79.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.75, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $178.64 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the $79.77 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.87, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $44.06 (bear) to $77.28 (bull), the price of $79.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Valaris Ltd reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +17.7%/yr. Reported net income was $983M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.2B Mid · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 2.92 · EPS (TTM) $11.27 · Net margin 44.0% · Return on equity 33.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −26%, VAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$44.06Fair Value $58.75Bull$77.28
Price $79.77 · Downside -26.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.3% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+44.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+44.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−304% → 21%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.0%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.6% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Recent contract awards strengthen backlog in offshore drilling, yet the business remains exposed to cyclical utilization swings that limit durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: Loss of Saudi Aramco as key customer for the ARO joint venture could sharply reduce revenues and utilization for a significant portion of the fleet.
Bull case: Valaris could leverage its post-bankruptcy low-debt balance sheet and modern fleet to win longer-term contracts from diversified customers while adopting AI tools for higher operational efficiency and safety.
Bear case: If major customers like Aramco reduce activity and rivals such as Borr Drilling secure more jackup work, Valaris could face prolonged low utilization, idle rigs and pressure on margins across its fleet.
Valaris just added new contracts and extensions that boost its backlog with exploration work offshore Suriname plus jackup assignments in Australia and plug-and-abandonment programs in the North Sea. In this capital-intensive drilling business, steady rig utilization determines cash generation far more than headline awards alone. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will these wins lift fleet activity through the cycle or simply bridge gaps until the next downturn?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)44.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valaris Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VAL
Frequently asked questions
Is Valaris Ltd (VAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $58.75 versus a price of $79.77, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VAL?
Our model-based fair value for Valaris Ltd is $58.75 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $79.77.
What is the quality score of VAL?
Valaris Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $58.75 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.06, optimistic scenario $77.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valaris Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $58.75, about 26% lower versus a price of $79.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $44.06, optimistic scenario $77.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
Valaris Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Valaris Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VAL use?
Our models discount Valaris Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Valaris Ltd that is +17.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Valaris Ltd (VAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Valaris Ltd grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Valaris Ltd (VAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Valaris Ltd (+17.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.61 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Valaris Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valaris Ltd it is $58.75 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $79.77. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Valaris Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, VAL trades above its calculated fair value: price $79.77, fair value $58.75, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($79.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($58.75). For Valaris Ltd the two are $21.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valaris Ltd worth?
The market values Valaris Ltd at about $6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $79.77; our models calculate a fair value of $58.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VAL?
Our models span a range for Valaris Ltd: cautious scenario $44.06, base $58.75, optimistic $77.28 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $79.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VAL?
Valaris Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $58.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 15.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Valaris Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 33.6%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VAL from its 52-week high?
Valaris Ltd trades at $79.77, about 30% below its 52-week high of $113.42 and 63% above the low of $49.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $58.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valaris Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valaris Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $79.77, calculated fair value $58.75 (−26%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VAL calculated?
We run Valaris Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $58.75 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Valaris Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $79.77. Our model-based fair value is $58.75, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valaris Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($77.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Valaris Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
The market capitalisation of Valaris Ltd is $6.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valaris Ltd is 2.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
Earnings per share at Valaris Ltd are $11.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
The net margin of Valaris Ltd is 44.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valaris Ltd is 33.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valaris Ltd is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
The operating margin of Valaris Ltd is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
Revenue at Valaris Ltd is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valaris Ltd (VAL)?
Earnings per share at Valaris Ltd are growing −55.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Valaris Ltd (VAL) carry?
The net debt of Valaris Ltd is $590M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026