West African Resources Ltd (WAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of West African Resources Ltd stock A$2.78, price A$3.45, that is 19.4% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6300 – A$3.73 · fair‑value band A$2.08 – A$3.47 · the A$3.45 price screens above the A$2.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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West African Resources Limited engages in the mining, mineral processing, acquisition, exploration, and project development of gold projects in West Africa. The company has 85% interests in the Sanbrado Gold and Kiaka Gold projects located in Burkina Faso.
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It also holds interests in the Toega Gold Project located in Burkina Faso. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
West African Resources Ltd (WAF) currently trades at A$3.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.78, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$8.42 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$3.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$1.80, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$2.08 (bear) to A$3.47 (bull), the price of A$3.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
West African Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$724M in FY2025 versus A$310M in FY2021, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$224M in FY2025, compounding +25.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$4.0B (≈ $2.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 1.57 · EPS (TTM) A$0.5600 · Net margin 25.3% · Return on equity 45.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 28.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 50.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −19%, WAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.08Fair Value A$2.78BullA$3.47
Price A$3.45 · Downside -19.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.4864 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+257.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−560% → 45%
AI conclusion: Record gold output at low sustaining costs from Sanbrado and Kiaka marks the main operational strength, while thin evidence of any durable moat and negative free cash flow remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Further government participation in a key asset together with regional security pressures could reduce ownership control and interrupt mining operations in Burkina Faso.
West African Resources just delivered a record 127950 ounces of gold in the September quarter from its Sanbrado and Kiaka operations in Burkina Faso while commencing underground mining at M5 South. This keeps the group on track for 2026 guidance with low sustaining costs. Yet the company faces potential further government participation in one of its key assets alongside regional security pressures. Will the operational gains from underground development outweigh the risks of diluted ownership and local instability?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 280 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−19.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)45.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)50.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)206.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is West African Resources Ltd (WAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.78 versus a price of A$3.45, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WAF?
Our model-based fair value for West African Resources Ltd is A$2.78 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.45.
What is the quality score of WAF?
West African Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.78 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.08, optimistic scenario A$3.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the West African Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.78, about 19% lower versus a price of A$3.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.08, optimistic scenario A$3.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For West African Resources Ltd it is A$2.78 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of A$3.45. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is West African Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, WAF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$3.45, fair value A$2.78, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.78). For West African Resources Ltd the two are A$0.6700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is West African Resources Ltd worth?
The market values West African Resources Ltd at about A$4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is A$3.45; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WAF?
Our models span a range for West African Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.08, base A$2.78, optimistic A$3.47 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price A$3.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WAF?
West African Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.78 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 7.3. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for West African Resources Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 45.7%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WAF from its 52-week high?
West African Resources Ltd trades at A$3.45, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$3.73 and 36% above the low of A$2.53 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to West African Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is West African Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price A$3.45, calculated fair value A$2.78 (−19%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WAF calculated?
We run West African Resources Ltd through 14 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$2.78 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. West African Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$3.45. Our model-based fair value is A$2.78, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with West African Resources Ltd right now?
Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of West African Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The market capitalisation of West African Resources Ltd is A$4.0B (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of West African Resources Ltd is 1.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Earnings per share at West African Resources Ltd are A$0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The net margin of West African Resources Ltd is 25.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of West African Resources Ltd is 45.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of West African Resources Ltd is 28.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
The operating margin of West African Resources Ltd is 50.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Revenue at West African Resources Ltd is growing +207% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at West African Resources Ltd (WAF)?
Earnings per share at West African Resources Ltd are growing +88.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does West African Resources Ltd (WAF) generate?
The free cash flow of West African Resources Ltd is −A$236M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does West African Resources Ltd (WAF) carry?
The net debt of West African Resources Ltd is A$34.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 11, 2026