Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd stock ¥46.76, price ¥35.63, upside +31.2%, quality 82 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥23.27 – ¥58.13 · fair‑value band ¥32.73 – ¥60.79 · the ¥35.63 price screens below the ¥46.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd. provides machine perception and artificial intelligence technologies worldwide. The company offers cameras, including network, Turbo HD, and PTZ cameras; explosion-proof and anti-corrosion series; and CCTV accessories.
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It also provides video recorders and serves comprising network recorders, DVRs, DeepinMind intelligence, storage, servers, and kits; access control systems that include face recognition terminals, card terminals, readers, controllers, payment terminals, visitor terminals, electrical locks, and one-door access control system kits; speed gates and turnstiles; and video intercom products.
In addition, the company offers interactive flat panel displays; LED displays; LCD video walls, monitors, and controllers; alarm systems, such as wired and wireless intrusion alarms, and intrusion accessories; networking products, including switches, wireless bridges, routers, wireless access points, and accessories; security and thermography thermal cameras; parking management products comprising vehicle access control management, parking guidance, and on-street parking cameras; traffic cameras, traffic servers, radars, mobile enforcement systems, supplement lights, signal control series, and traffic accessories; and portable products and enterprise PDAs. Further, it provides onboard security; security inspections products, such as x-ray inspection systems, detectors, millimeter wave security inspection, and intelligent security analyzers; audio products, including public address systems, security audio products, and audio accessories; acoustic and laser sensing products; auxiliary care and security radars; fire alarm systems, fusion detection cameras, and standalone detectors; and Hik-Connect, Hik-Partner Pro, HikCentral Professional, HikCentral Access Control, and HikCentral Focsign software.
The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415) currently trades at ¥35.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥46.76, implying the stock looks roughly 24% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥66.76 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥35.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.93, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥32.73 (bear) to ¥60.79 (bull), the price of ¥35.63 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 92.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 81.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 14.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 327B CNY (≈ $49.1B) Large · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 3.25 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.90 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at 31%, 002415 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥32.73Fair Value ¥46.76Bull¥60.79
Price ¥35.63 · Upside +31.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.6370 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 9.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price and +6.9% for the forecasts.
Compare Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 214 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+31.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)25.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002415
Frequently asked questions
Is Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥46.76 versus a price of ¥35.63, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 002415?
Our model-based fair value for Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is ¥46.76 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥35.63.
What is the quality score of 002415?
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥46.76 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥32.73, optimistic scenario ¥60.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥46.76, about +31% upside versus a price of ¥35.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥32.73, optimistic scenario ¥60.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 101B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002415 use?
Our models discount Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd that is -0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies -0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (-0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.64 %: that much free cash flow Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd it is ¥46.76 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of ¥35.63. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 002415 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥35.63, fair value ¥46.76, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002415?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥35.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥46.76). For Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥11.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd at about 327B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is ¥35.63; our models calculate a fair value of ¥46.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002415?
Our models span a range for Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥32.73, base ¥46.76, optimistic ¥60.79 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price ¥35.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002415?
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥46.76 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 24.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 3.8, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 002415?
The PEG ratio of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 22.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002415 from its 52-week high?
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥35.63, about 6% below its 52-week high of ¥38.03 and 29% above the low of ¥27.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥46.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Sandisk Corporation, Seagate Technology Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price ¥35.63, calculated fair value ¥46.76 (+31%), Quality Score 82/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002415 calculated?
We run Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥46.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd currently trades 24% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥35.63. Our model-based fair value is ¥46.76, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (82/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range (¥32.73 to ¥60.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415) come from?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd grew +9.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The market capitalisation of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 327B CNY (≈ $49.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 3.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd are ¥1.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The dividend yield of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 3.2% (payout 60.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The net margin of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 17.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 13.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
The operating margin of Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
Revenue at Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd is growing +13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd are growing +37.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd (002415) hold?
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 29.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026