Shihlin Paper Corp (1903) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shihlin Paper Corp stock TWD 16.75, price TWD 46.00, that is 63.6% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 42.65 TWD – 76.10 TWD · fair‑value band 11.73 TWD – 17.91 TWD · the 46.00 TWD price screens above the 16.75 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Shihlin Paper Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sales of paper-related products in Taiwan, Europe, and Asia. It sells paper processed products, wet wipes, facial masks, skin care products, and bath products.
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The company also engages in leasing of assets; investment and development; wholesale of daily necessities; and urban renewal and reconstruction activities. Shihlin Paper Corporation was founded in 1918 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Shihlin Paper Corp (1903) currently trades at 46.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.75 TWD, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 21.95 TWD per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the 46.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 4.58 TWD, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 11.73 TWD (bear) to 17.91 TWD (bull), the price of 46.00 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shihlin Paper Corp reported revenue of 153M TWD in FY2025 versus 326M TWD in FY2021, a compound −17.2%/yr. Reported net income was 336M TWD in FY2025, compounding +41.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.5B TWD (≈ $381M) Small · P/E ratio 33.6 · P/S ratio 73.5 · EPS (TTM) 1.37 TWD · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −26.2% · Revenue (TTM) 153M TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −64%, 1903 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear11.73 TWDFair Value 16.75 TWDBull17.91 TWD
Price 46.00 TWD · Downside -63.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.17 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−69% → −14%
2025 sits 125% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 20.5%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−63.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−26.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)82.04× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.53× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)2· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shihlin Paper Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1903
Frequently asked questions
Is Shihlin Paper Corp (1903) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.75 TWD versus a price of 46.00 TWD, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1903?
Our model-based fair value for Shihlin Paper Corp is 16.75 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 46.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1903?
Shihlin Paper Corp has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.75 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11.73 TWD, optimistic scenario 17.91 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shihlin Paper Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.75 TWD, about 64% lower versus a price of 46.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 11.73 TWD, optimistic scenario 17.91 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
Shihlin Paper Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 153M TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shihlin Paper Corp it is 16.75 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 46.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shihlin Paper Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 1903 trades above its calculated fair value: price 46.00 TWD, fair value 16.75 TWD, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1903?
No. The price is what the market pays today (46.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.75 TWD). For Shihlin Paper Corp the two are 29.25 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shihlin Paper Corp worth?
The market values Shihlin Paper Corp at about 12.5B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 46.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.75 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1903?
Our models span a range for Shihlin Paper Corp: cautious scenario 11.73 TWD, base 16.75 TWD, optimistic 17.91 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 46.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1903?
Shihlin Paper Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.75 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 2.3, P/S 82.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 1903?
The PEG ratio of Shihlin Paper Corp is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shihlin Paper Corp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1903 from its 52-week high?
Shihlin Paper Corp trades at 46.00 TWD, about 23% below its 52-week high of 59.80 TWD and 1% above the low of 45.75 TWD (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.75 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shihlin Paper Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, Henkel AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shihlin Paper Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 46.00 TWD, calculated fair value 16.75 TWD (−64%), Quality Score 41/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1903 calculated?
We run Shihlin Paper Corp through 8 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 16.75 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Shihlin Paper Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 46.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.75 TWD, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shihlin Paper Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (17.91 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Shihlin Paper Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
The market capitalisation of Shihlin Paper Corp is 12.5B TWD (≈ $381M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shihlin Paper Corp is 73.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
Earnings per share at Shihlin Paper Corp are 1.37 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shihlin Paper Corp is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shihlin Paper Corp is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
The operating margin of Shihlin Paper Corp is −26.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
Revenue at Shihlin Paper Corp is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shihlin Paper Corp (1903)?
Earnings per share at Shihlin Paper Corp are growing +549% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shihlin Paper Corp (1903) generate?
The free cash flow of Shihlin Paper Corp is −184M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shihlin Paper Corp (1903) carry?
The net debt of Shihlin Paper Corp is 2.8B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026