Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangdong Electric Power Devel stock HK$2.42, price HK$1.80, upside +34.4%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.63 – HK$2.55 · fair‑value band HK$1.81 – HK$3.02 · the HK$1.80 price screens below the HK$2.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates electric power projects in the People's Republic of China.
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The company engages in investment, construction, and operation management of power projects and new energy projects; production and sales of electric power; technical consulting and services in the power industry; leasing of terminal facilities; and general cargo storage, loading and unloading, and shipment service.
It also engages in development, construction, and operation of coal-fired power plants; LNG power generation, wind power generation and hydropower generation; labour services; management services; and provision of repair services.
The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Guangdong Energy Group Co.,Ltd.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539) currently trades at HK$1.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.42, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$5.08 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$1.80 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.53, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.81 (bear) to HK$3.02 (bull), the price of HK$1.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guangdong Electric Power Devel reported revenue of 51.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 44.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 600M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$9.5B (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.3400 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −2.7% · Return on equity −4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at 34%, 200539 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$1.81Fair Value HK$2.42BullHK$3.02
Price HK$1.80 · Upside +34.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.8% vs −14.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Compare Guangdong Electric Power Devel with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+34.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−4.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−4.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Electric Power Devel Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200539
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.42 versus a price of HK$1.80, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200539?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Electric Power Devel is HK$2.42 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.80.
What is the quality score of 200539?
Guangdong Electric Power Devel has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.42 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.81, optimistic scenario HK$3.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Electric Power Devel stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.42, about +34% upside versus a price of HK$1.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.81, optimistic scenario HK$3.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
Guangdong Electric Power Devel reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 56.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Guangdong Electric Power Devel pay a dividend?
Guangdong Electric Power Devel currently shows a dividend yield of 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guangdong Electric Power Devel pays a dividend of HK$0.02 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 21, 2026. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Electric Power Devel it is HK$2.42 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of HK$1.80. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Guangdong Electric Power Devel stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 200539 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.80, fair value HK$2.42, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200539?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.42). For Guangdong Electric Power Devel the two are HK$0.6200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Electric Power Devel worth?
The market values Guangdong Electric Power Devel at about HK$9.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200539?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Electric Power Devel: cautious scenario HK$1.81, base HK$2.42, optimistic HK$3.02 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price HK$1.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 200539?
The PEG ratio of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Electric Power Devel (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −4.5%, debt of 3.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200539 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Electric Power Devel trades at HK$1.80, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$2.23 and 2% above the low of HK$1.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Electric Power Devel?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Ørsted A/S, VERBUND AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Electric Power Devel stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price HK$1.80, calculated fair value HK$2.42 (+34%), Quality Score 32/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200539 calculated?
We run Guangdong Electric Power Devel through 12 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$2.42 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Electric Power Devel currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$1.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.42, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Electric Power Devel right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Electric Power Devel grew −11.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −15.3 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangdong Electric Power Devel
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is HK$9.5B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is 0.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Electric Power Devel are HK$−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
The net margin of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is −2.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is −4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is −0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
Revenue at Guangdong Electric Power Devel is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Electric Power Devel are growing −2.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is −2.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangdong Electric Power Devel (200539) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Electric Power Devel is 78.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026