Guangdong Electric Power Development Co (200539) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap HK$11.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from HK$2.32 to HK$2.38 (+2.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from HK$1.68 (bear) to HK$2.97 (bull), base HK$2.38. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 34/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.65 – HK$2.58 · fair‑value band HK$1.68 – HK$2.97 · the HK$1.90 price screens below the HK$2.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Guangdong Electric Power Development Co (200539) currently trades at HK$1.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.38, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co generated revenue of HK$52.3B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at HK$78.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.68 (bear case) to HK$2.97 (bull case); at HK$1.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at 25%, 200539 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$9.04) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates electric power projects in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates electric power projects in the People's Republic of China. The company engages in investment, construction, and operation management of power projects and new energy projects; production and sales of electric power; technical consulting and services in the power industry; leasing of terminal facilities; and general cargo storage, loading and unloading, and shipment service. It also engages in development, construction, and operation of coal-fired power plants; LNG power generation, wind power generation and hydropower generation; labour services; management services; and provision of repair services. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Guangdong Energy Group Co.,Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Electric Power Development Co reported revenue of HK$51.5B in FY2025 versus HK$44.5B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$600M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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