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Guangdong Electric Power Development Co (200539) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · CN · Market cap HK$11.6B

GE Guangdong Electric Power Development Co 200539 · SHE
PriceHK$1.90
Fair ValueHK$2.38
Upside+25.3%
Quality34/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 1.6% net margin
High debt · negative free cash flow
0.91% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 22/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.68 – HK$2.97 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 34 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from HK$2.32 to HK$2.38 (+2.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from HK$1.68 (bear) to HK$2.97 (bull), base HK$2.38. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 34/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.58 HK$1.65 Fair Value HK$2.38 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.65 – HK$2.58 · fair‑value band HK$1.68 – HK$2.97 · the HK$1.90 price screens below the HK$2.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangdong Electric Power Development Co (200539) currently trades at HK$1.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.38, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co generated revenue of HK$52.3B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at HK$78.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.68 (bear case) to HK$2.97 (bull case); at HK$1.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at 25%, 200539 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$3.22 HK$3.15 HK$2.62 76
Gordon GGM HK$5.15 HK$10.72 HK$17.00 70
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.36 HK$1.95 HK$2.53 68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7800 HK$3.49 HK$4.79 54
Lynch FV HK$0.9100 HK$1.30 HK$1.69 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.9100 HK$1.30 HK$1.69 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$5.15 HK$10.72 HK$17.00 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.15 HK$9.04 HK$11.25 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.54 HK$2.06 HK$2.57 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.46 HK$1.94 HK$2.43 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.46 HK$1.94 HK$2.43 55
EV/EBITDA HK$0.8300 HK$5.50 HK$10.17 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.23 HK$2.99 HK$4.47 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.22 HK$3.15 HK$2.62 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.36 HK$1.95 HK$2.53 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$9.04) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$52.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.4%
Net margin 1.6%
Return on equity 3.4%
Free cash flow −HK$2.1B FY2025
P/E ratio 12.2
More key figures
Operating margin 3.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1800
Dividend yield 0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -2.7%
Net debt HK$78.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates electric power projects in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates electric power projects in the People's Republic of China. The company engages in investment, construction, and operation management of power projects and new energy projects; production and sales of electric power; technical consulting and services in the power industry; leasing of terminal facilities; and general cargo storage, loading and unloading, and shipment service. It also engages in development, construction, and operation of coal-fired power plants; LNG power generation, wind power generation and hydropower generation; labour services; management services; and provision of repair services. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Guangdong Energy Group Co.,Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Electric Power Development Co reported revenue of HK$51.5B in FY2025 versus HK$44.5B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$600M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$51.5B
Latest YoY
−9.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.9%
Avg. growth/yr (34Y)
+13.0%
Revenue +3.8%/yr
FY21 HK$44.5B
FY22 HK$52.7B
FY23 HK$59.7B
FY24 HK$57.2B
FY25 HK$51.5B
Net income
FY21 −HK$2.9B
FY22 −HK$3.0B
FY23 HK$975M
FY24 HK$964M
FY25 HK$600M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Electric Power Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200539

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 34 · Below median
Fair Value upside +25% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median
Debt / equity 3.58× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.49× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.22× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.97× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 67 · sector 15
FUTURE 37 · sector 0
PAST 14 · sector 12
HEALTH 0 · sector 68
DIVIDEND 18 · sector 48

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥27.99 ¥25.13 -10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 149.70 kr 31.40 -79%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.81 ¥5.57 -43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,537 ₹170.50 -89%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.65 -10%
VERBUND AG OEWA €58.65 €66.19 +13%
BEP BEP $32.33 $73.35 +127%
BEPUN BEPUN C$44.56 C$10.15 -77%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €19.89 €13.90 -30%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥16.21 ¥8.23 -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Electric Power Development Co (200539) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.38 versus a price of HK$1.90, about +25% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200539?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Electric Power Development Co is HK$2.38 (as of Jul 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.90.
What is the quality score of 200539?
Guangdong Electric Power Development Co has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co (200539)?
Guangdong Electric Power Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$52.3B (latest available figure, as of Jul 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 200539?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co is about 1.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong Electric Power Development Co pay a dividend?
Guangdong Electric Power Development Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.91% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 7, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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