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BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd stock HK$41.05, price HK$50.00, that is 17.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services HK · ISIN HK2388011192

BH BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd

2388 · HK
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 18% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 60.1% net margin (TTM)
4.6% dividend yield · Sustainable
Wide moat 66/100
Upbeat coverage
Quality 54/100
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Some data
Fair value HK$41.05 · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.2 %/yr in HKD)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Digital banks Mox, ZA Bank and WeLab competing for retail customers🚩Exposure to mainland China property developers like Vanke
Watch BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$53.65 HK$15.08 Fair Value HK$41.05 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$15.08 – HK$53.65 · fair‑value band HK$30.79 – HK$51.31 · the HK$50.00 price screens above the HK$41.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, provides banking and related financial services to corporate and individual customers in Hong Kong, China, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Personal Banking, Corporate Banking, Treasury, and Insurance.

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It offers savings, current, and time deposit accounts, as well as monthly deposit plans; mortgage plans; corporate deposits, and payroll and e-cheque services.

The company also offers cross-border financial and remittance services; and securities, funds, foreign exchange services, precious metals and FX margin services, currency linked investments, bonds, market information services, monthly savings plans, and structured products, as well as business and personal loans.

In addition, it provides business and accident protection, medical, travel and leisure, family protection, RMB, and personal life insurance products; and credit cards.

Further, the company offers safe deposit box, e-bill, and payment services; personal and corporate RMB, and RMB clearing bank services; business comprehensive, property, liability, group, and retailer comprehensive insurance plans; small business, asset-pledge, and syndicated loans; accounts receivable, machinery and equipment, SME green, and project financing; business banking, trade finance and services, investment, treasury, corporate collection and payment, e-commerce, and card services; and custody and cash management services.

Additionally, it provides wealth management and overdraft services; mandatory provident fund schemes; and private and corporate banking services, as well as internet, phone, and mobile banking services; and trade related products and other credit facilities.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited was founded in 1917 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited is a subsidiary of BOC Hong Kong (BVI) Limited.

Stock analysis

BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388) currently trades at HK$50.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$41.05, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$42.96 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$50.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$22.56, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$30.79 (bear) to HK$51.31 (bull), the price of HK$50.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$68.7B in FY2025 versus HK$76.9B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$40.1B in FY2025, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$529B (≈ $67.4B) Large · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 7.41 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 58.4% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 76.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −18%, 2388 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$30.79 Fair Value HK$41.05 Bull HK$51.31
Price HK$50.00 · Downside -17.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income HK$31.30 HK$36.08 HK$46.91 74
DDM Multi-Stage HK$21.90 HK$38.40 HK$49.57 64
Gordon GGM HK$21.90 HK$47.52 HK$79.36 63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$21.90 HK$47.52 HK$79.36 63
DDM Multi-Stage HK$21.90 HK$38.40 HK$49.57 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$37.00 HK$49.33 HK$61.66 63
P/B Multiple HK$24.57 HK$32.76 HK$40.95 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$16.83 HK$22.56 HK$33.67 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$31.30 HK$36.08 HK$46.91 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 50
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 82
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 90
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 60
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 77
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs 5.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 71%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

2388 screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (47 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −17.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.9% · Above median
Return on assets 0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 60.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 76.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 1.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.23× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.47× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 7.62× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.09× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)9 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)9 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)48 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)92 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs 2388
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs 2388
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs 2388
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs 2388
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs 2388
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs 2388
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs 2388
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs 2388
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs 2388
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs 2388

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BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2388

Frequently asked questions

Is BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$41.05 versus a price of HK$50.00, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2388?
Our model-based fair value for BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is HK$41.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$50.00.
What is the quality score of 2388?
BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$41.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$30.79, optimistic scenario HK$51.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$41.05, about 18% lower versus a price of HK$50.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$30.79, optimistic scenario HK$51.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$69.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.58% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388) and when is the ex-dividend date?
BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of HK$2.29 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.6%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 12, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. The payout ratio is 60.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What is the intrinsic value of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd it is HK$41.05 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of HK$50.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 2388 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$50.00, fair value HK$41.05, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2388?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$50.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$41.05). For BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd the two are HK$8.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd at about HK$529B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is HK$50.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$41.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2388?
Our models span a range for BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$30.79, base HK$41.05, optimistic HK$51.31 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price HK$50.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2388?
BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$41.05 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.5, P/S 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 2388?
The PEG ratio of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
Balance-sheet figures for BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2388 from its 52-week high?
BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd trades at HK$50.00, about 7% below its 52-week high of HK$53.65 and 41% above the low of HK$35.46 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$41.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price HK$50.00, calculated fair value HK$41.05 (−18%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2388 calculated?
We run BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$41.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$50.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$41.05, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388) come from?
Earnings per share at BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd grew +4.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
The market capitalisation of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is HK$529B (≈ $67.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is 7.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
The dividend yield of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is 4.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
The net margin of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is 58.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
The operating margin of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is 76.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
Revenue at BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388)?
Earnings per share at BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd are growing +7.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388) generate?
The free cash flow of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is −HK$88.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd (2388) carry?
The net debt of BOC Hong Kong Holdings Ltd is HK$7.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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