Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd stock ¥5.04, price ¥14.18, that is 64.4% below the price, quality 13 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range ¥12.81 – ¥35.23 · fair‑value band ¥3.53 – ¥6.57 · the ¥14.18 price screens above the ¥5.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, designing, manufacturing, and sales of automotive forged aluminum alloy wheels for commercial and passenger vehicle applications in China and internationally.
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Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Taizhou, China.
Stock analysis
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) currently trades at ¥14.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.04, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥3.67 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥14.18 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.32, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.53 (bear) to ¥6.57 (bull), the price of ¥14.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 947M CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 27.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −20.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.1B CNY (≈ $319M) Small · P/S ratio 1.89 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin −1.5% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −64%, 301539 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.6900 to ¥19.53). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥3.53Fair Value ¥5.04Bull¥6.57
Price ¥14.18 · Downside -64.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥3.83¥3.78¥3.8576
EPV¥0.5500¥0.8100¥1.0273
ROIC Compounder¥0.5500¥0.8100¥1.0272
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥1.27¥4.13¥5.5264
Lynch FV¥0.9200¥1.32¥1.7161
PEG = 1.0¥0.9200¥1.32¥1.7157
EPV¥0.5500¥0.8100¥1.0273
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥1.18¥2.21¥3.1467
DDM Multi-Stage¥1.18¥1.91¥2.3567
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥3.08¥4.10¥5.1363
P/S Multiple¥2.38¥3.17¥3.9658
P/B Multiple¥14.65¥19.53¥24.4155
EV/EBIT¥0.8100¥1.88¥2.9562
EV/EBITDA¥3.28¥5.17¥7.0666
EV/Revenuen/a¥0.6900¥1.6250
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.44¥3.27¥4.8854
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥3.83¥3.78¥3.8576
ROIC Compounder¥0.5500¥0.8100¥1.0272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥2.57¥3.67¥4.7867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score13 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−64.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−1.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)38.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.65× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.76× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA29.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hongxin Tech Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301539
Frequently asked questions
Is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.04 versus a price of ¥14.18, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301539?
Our model-based fair value for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is ¥5.04 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥14.18.
What is the quality score of 301539?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 13/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.04 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.53, optimistic scenario ¥6.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hongxin Tech Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.04, about 64% lower versus a price of ¥14.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.53, optimistic scenario ¥6.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Hongxin Tech Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.1 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 10, 2026. The payout ratio is 53.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.7% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.7% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hongxin Tech Co Ltd it is ¥5.04 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥14.18. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 301539 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥14.18, fair value ¥5.04, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301539?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥14.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.04). For Hongxin Tech Co Ltd the two are ¥9.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hongxin Tech Co Ltd at about 2.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥14.18; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301539?
Our models span a range for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.53, base ¥5.04, optimistic ¥6.57 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥14.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 13/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301539 from its 52-week high?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd trades at ¥14.18, about 38% below its 52-week high of ¥22.81 and 11% above the low of ¥12.81 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hongxin Tech Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥14.18, calculated fair value ¥5.04 (−64%), Quality Score 13/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301539 calculated?
We run Hongxin Tech Co Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥5.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hongxin Tech Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥14.18. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.04, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hongxin Tech Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (13/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥3.53 to ¥6.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The market capitalisation of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 2.1B CNY (≈ $319M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 1.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Earnings per share at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd are ¥−0.1200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The dividend yield of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The net margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is −1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The operating margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Revenue at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is growing +38.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Earnings per share at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd are growing +3.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) generate?
The free cash flow of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is −396M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) carry?
The net debt of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 355M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026