Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd ¥4.49, price ¥15.32, upside -70.7%, quality 12 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range ¥12.81 – ¥35.23 · fair‑value band ¥3.35 – ¥5.44 · the ¥15.32 price screens above the ¥4.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, designing, manufacturing, and sales of automotive forged aluminum alloy wheels for commercial and passenger vehicle applications in China and internationally. Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Taizhou, China.
Stock analysis
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) currently trades at ¥15.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.49, implying the stock looks roughly 240.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥3.67 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥15.32 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥0.7000, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥3.35 (bear) to ¥5.44 (bull), the price of ¥15.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 947M CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 27.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −20.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.3B CNY (≈ $338M) · P/E ratio 766.0 · P/S ratio 19.7 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0200 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −71%, 301539 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.7000 to ¥6.35). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥3.35Fair Value ¥4.49Bull ¥5.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0147 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 695 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score12 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)766.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.82× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.04× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA34.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)81· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hongxin Tech Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301539
Frequently asked questions
Is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.49 versus a price of ¥15.32, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301539?
Our model-based fair value for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is ¥4.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.32.
What is the quality score of 301539?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 12/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.35, optimistic scenario ¥5.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hongxin Tech Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.49, about −71% upside versus a price of ¥15.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.35, optimistic scenario ¥5.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hongxin Tech Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hongxin Tech Co Ltd it is ¥4.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥15.32. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 301539 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥15.32, fair value ¥4.49, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301539?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.49). For Hongxin Tech Co Ltd the two are ¥10.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hongxin Tech Co Ltd at about 2.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.32; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301539?
Our models span a range for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.35, base ¥4.49, optimistic ¥5.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥15.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 12/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301539 from its 52-week high?
Hongxin Tech Co Ltd trades at ¥15.32, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥22.81 and 20% above the low of ¥12.81 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hongxin Tech Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hongxin Tech Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥15.32, calculated fair value ¥4.49 (−71%), Quality Score 12/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301539 calculated?
We run Hongxin Tech Co Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥4.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hongxin Tech Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥15.32. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.49, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hongxin Tech Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The market capitalisation of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 2.3B CNY (≈ $338M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 766.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 19.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Earnings per share at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd are ¥0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 766.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The dividend yield of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The net margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
The operating margin of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Revenue at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is growing +16.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539)?
Earnings per share at Hongxin Tech Co Ltd are growing +3.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) generate?
The free cash flow of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is −396M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hongxin Tech Co Ltd (301539) carry?
The net debt of Hongxin Tech Co Ltd is 355M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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