China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd stock ¥6.90, price ¥3.41, upside +102.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.10 – ¥5.55 · fair‑value band ¥6.52 – ¥8.77 · the ¥3.41 price screens below the ¥6.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments.
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Its deposit products include saving accounts, deposit books and certificates, contracted and agreement deposits, call deposits, and corporate term and current deposits.
The company also offers personal housing mortgage, individual automobile purchase, and household composite; corporate loans; medium and long term, and short-term working capital loans, as well as debit and credit cards.
In addition, it provides appointed and domestic remittance, payment and collection agent, clearing, safe deposit box, VIP, and salary and welfare agent card services, as well as internet, mobile, telephone, and self-serve banking services.
Further, the company offers gross settlement; wages distribution agency and letter of guarantee; cash management; trade finance; industrial chain finance; international credit; and comprehensive credit granting and financial product investment services.
It operates through branch-level institutions, business outlets, general sub-branches, community sub-branches, and small business sub-branches.
The company serves individuals, corporate customers, government agencies, and financial institutions, as well as micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises. China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) currently trades at ¥3.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.90, implying the stock looks roughly 51% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥12.24 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥3.41 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥4.69, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥6.52 (bear) to ¥8.77 (bull), the price of ¥3.41 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd reported revenue of 143B CNY in FY2025 versus 321B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was 30.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 149B CNY (≈ $22.4B) Large · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5200 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 31.7% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 102%, 600016 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥6.52Fair Value ¥6.90Bull¥8.77
Price ¥3.41 · Upside +102.3%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2964 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−50.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.9% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.3% vs −4.1%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 12%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+102.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)31.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)24.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−13.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.90 versus a price of ¥3.41, about +102% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600016?
Our model-based fair value for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is ¥6.90 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.41.
What is the quality score of 600016?
China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.90 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.52, optimistic scenario ¥8.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.90, about +102% upside versus a price of ¥3.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.52, optimistic scenario ¥8.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 83.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd it is ¥6.90 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of ¥3.41. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 600016 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥3.41, fair value ¥6.90, a gap of about +102% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600016?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.90). For China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd the two are ¥3.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd worth?
The market values China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd at about 149B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.41; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600016?
Our models span a range for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥6.52, base ¥6.90, optimistic ¥8.77 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price ¥3.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600016?
China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.90 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 5.1. Other multiples: PEG 8.4, P/B 0.2, P/S 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 600016?
The PEG ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 8.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600016 from its 52-week high?
China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd trades at ¥3.41, about 19% below its 52-week high of ¥4.20 and 8% above the low of ¥3.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price ¥3.41, calculated fair value ¥6.90 (+102%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600016 calculated?
We run China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd currently trades 51% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥3.41. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.90, about +102% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (46/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥6.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) come from?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd grew −2.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
The market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 149B CNY (≈ $22.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 1.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd are ¥0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
The dividend yield of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 5.0% (payout 32.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
The net margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 31.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
The operating margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
Revenue at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is growing −13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?
Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd are growing −29.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) generate?
The free cash flow of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is −167B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) carry?
The net debt of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 428B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026