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China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Financial Services · CN · ISIN CNE0000015Y0

CM Thin data Sep 18, 2026

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd

600016 · SHG

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value ¥7.10 · Strongly undervalued (+103%)

!Quality 42/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −15.7 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 35.1% net margin (TTM)

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

·5.40% dividend yield

!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)

!Moderate moat 55/100

!Insider activity 45/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 17 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear ¥5.33 to bull ¥8.87 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 42/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.10 – ¥5.55 · fair‑value band ¥5.33 – ¥8.87 · the ¥3.50 price screens below the ¥7.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments.

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Retail Banking, and Others segments. Its deposit products include saving accounts, deposit books and certificates, contracted and agreement deposits, call deposits, and corporate term and current deposits. The company also offers personal housing mortgage, individual automobile purchase, and household composite; corporate loans; medium and long term, and short-term working capital loans, as well as debit and credit cards. In addition, it provides appointed and domestic remittance, payment and collection agent, clearing, safe deposit box, VIP, and salary and welfare agent card services, as well as internet, mobile, telephone, and self-serve banking services. Further, the company offers gross settlement; wages distribution agency and letter of guarantee; cash management; trade finance; industrial chain finance; international credit; and comprehensive credit granting and financial product investment services. It operates through branch-level institutions, business outlets, general sub-branches, community sub-branches, and small business sub-branches. The company serves individuals, corporate customers, government agencies, and financial institutions, as well as micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises. China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) currently trades at ¥3.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.10, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥12.08 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥3.50 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥7.16, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥5.33 (bear) to ¥8.87 (bull), the price of ¥3.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd reported revenue of 143B CNY in FY2025 versus 321B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was 30.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 153B CNY (≈ $22.9B) · P/E ratio 6.0 · P/S ratio 1.27 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6000 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 21.4% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 103%, 600016 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥5.33 Fair Value ¥7.10 Bull ¥8.87

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2984 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income ¥11.97 ¥12.08 ¥11.30 75

Gordon GGM ¥4.08 ¥8.49 ¥13.47 64

DDM Multi-Stage ¥4.08 ¥7.16 ¥8.91 64

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ¥4.08 ¥8.49 ¥13.47 64

DDM Multi-Stage ¥4.08 ¥7.16 ¥8.91 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple ¥6.81 ¥9.07 ¥11.34 61

P/B Multiple ¥8.90 ¥11.87 ¥14.83 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ¥7.88 ¥10.55 ¥15.75 52

Economic Profit

Residual Income ¥11.97 ¥12.08 ¥11.30 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 28

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 58

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 0

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 29

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 79

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 97

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 27

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 12

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−50.5%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−21.7%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−15.7%

Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+20.3%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+3.1%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%

Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs −4%, steady

Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 12%

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative

Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd's Dividend Analysis Yahoo Finance · Sep 10, 2026
AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of China Shipowners Mutual Assurance Association Yahoo Finance · Jul 31, 2026
China Banks Warn on Using Credit Cards to Fund Stock Trading Yahoo Finance · Aug 28, 2025
In Zimbabwe, coal power project seeks other backing after China's U-turn Yahoo Finance · Mar 30, 2022

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 46 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +90% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%

Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 35% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 54% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −8% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.4% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.37× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.0× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.22× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 1.81× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 8.43× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 11

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45

PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 85

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group DBS19	20.20 THB	6.69 THB	−67%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968	HK$51.35	HK$78.59	+53%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.74	€4.04	−40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB	$23.16	$15.60	−33%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€102.32	€105.99	+4%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€82.92	€77.62	−6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$11.15	$9.67	−13%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,359	₹636.31	−53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC	$231.49	$159.52	−31%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	31.28 SGD	19.80 SGD	−37%

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China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd · Fair Value
¥7.10 +51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600016

Frequently asked questions

Is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.10 versus a price of ¥3.50, about +103% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 600016?

Our model-based fair value for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is ¥7.10 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.50.

What is the quality score of 600016?

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.10 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.33, optimistic scenario ¥8.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ¥7.10, about +103% upside versus a price of ¥3.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.33, optimistic scenario ¥8.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 83.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).

Does China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd pay a dividend?

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd it is ¥7.10 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥3.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 18, 2026, 600016 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥3.50, fair value ¥7.10, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 600016?

No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.10). For China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd the two are ¥3.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd worth?

The market values China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd at about 153B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.50; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.10 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600016?

Our models span a range for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.33, base ¥7.10, optimistic ¥8.87 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥3.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 600016?

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 8.4, P/B 0.2, P/S 1.8.

What is the PEG ratio of 600016?

The PEG ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 8.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

Balance-sheet figures for China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 600016 from its 52-week high?

China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd trades at ¥3.50, about 38% below its 52-week high of ¥5.68 and 1% above the low of ¥3.46 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.10 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥3.50, calculated fair value ¥7.10 (+103%), Quality Score 42/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 600016 calculated?

We run China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd currently trades 103 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was ¥3.50. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.10, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥5.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) come from?

Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd grew −2.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

The market capitalisation of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 153B CNY (≈ $22.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 1.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd are ¥0.6000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

The dividend yield of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 5.4% (payout 31.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

The net margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 21.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

The operating margin of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 54.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

Revenue at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is growing −7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016)?

Earnings per share at China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd are growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) generate?

The free cash flow of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is −167B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd (600016) carry?

The net debt of China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd is 428B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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