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Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock $26.28, price $37.00, that is 29.0% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US

AH Acadia Healthcare Company Inc logo Thin data Nov 5, 2026

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc

ACHC · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 29% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.7 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Profit last quarter 64% below a year ago.
Fair value $26.28 · Overvalued (−29.0%)
Quality 32/100
Loss-making · -33.4% net margin (TTM) · excl. goodwill write-downs -3.9%
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/12)
Narrow moat 19/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$89.06 $11.68 Fair Value $26.28 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.68 – $89.06 · fair‑value band $16.96 – $38.68 · the $37.00 price screens above the $26.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico.

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The company owns and operates acute inpatient psychiatric facilities; specialty treatment facilities comprising residential recovery facilities and eating disorder facilities; comprehensive treatment centers; and residential treatment centers, as well as facilities providing outpatient behavioral healthcare services for the behavioral healthcare and recovery needs of communities.

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

Stock analysis

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) currently trades at $37.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.28, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $43.76 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $37.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.00, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $16.96 (bear) to $38.68 (bull), the price of $37.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.4B Mid · P/E ex one-offs 18.5 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) $−12.42 · Net margin −33.4% · Return on equity −41.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 10.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 217% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −29%, ACHC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $16.96 Fair Value $26.28 Bull $38.68
Price $37.00 · Downside -29.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $11.22 $17.39 $22.83 72
ROIC Compounder $11.22 $17.39 $25.59 70
EV/EBITDA $38.01 $59.71 $81.41 66
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $11.22 $17.39 $22.83 72
Multiples
EV/EBIT $26.05 $43.76 $61.47 64
EV/EBITDA $38.01 $59.71 $81.41 66
EV/Revenue $10.84 $27.09 $43.34 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.99 $4.00 $5.97 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $11.22 $17.39 $25.59 70

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 12
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 9
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 24
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 66
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 45
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 85
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 100
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 77
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.5% (2020) → 16.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ACHC screens overvalued: fair value 29% below the price. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Acadia's broad network of behavioral health facilities supports steady demand for psychiatric and addiction treatment, yet losses, negative free cash flow and high leverage limit its strength.
Main risk: Liability costs and multiple legal resolutions threaten to restrict operational flexibility across Acadia's network of behavioral health facilities.
Acadia runs a network of behavioral health facilities delivering inpatient psychiatric care and addiction treatment across dozens of states. The recent return of its former CEO comes as the company navigates liability costs and multiple legal resolutions. Does restoring prior leadership better position it to capture steady patient demand, or will compliance and settlement burdens keep limiting operational flexibility?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 233 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −29.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −20.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −33.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 10.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.73× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.00× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.37× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)37 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS $23.40 $46.55 +99% vs ACHC
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥9.01 ¥10.88 +21% vs ACHC
DaVita Inc DVA $191.35 $218.90 +14% vs ACHC
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $494.99 $547.34 +11% vs ACHC
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $283.33 $279.20 −1% vs ACHC
Encompass Health Corporation EHC $137.54 $94.81 −31% vs ACHC
IHH Healthcare Berhad 5225 7.70 MYR 5.23 MYR −32% vs ACHC
Fresenius SE FRE €52.48 €34.77 −34% vs ACHC
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,446 ₹5,234 −38% vs ACHC
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 215.80 SAR 109.45 SAR −49% vs ACHC

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Acadia Healthcare Company Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Acadia Healthcare Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACHC

Frequently asked questions

Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.28 versus a price of $37.00, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACHC?
Our model-based fair value for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $26.28 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.00.
What is the quality score of ACHC?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.28 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.96, optimistic scenario $38.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.28, about 29% lower versus a price of $37.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.96, optimistic scenario $38.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Acadia Healthcare Company Inc it is $26.28 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $37.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ACHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.00, fair value $26.28, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.28). For Acadia Healthcare Company Inc the two are $10.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc worth?
The market values Acadia Healthcare Company Inc at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $37.00; our models calculate a fair value of $26.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACHC?
Our models span a range for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc: cautious scenario $16.96, base $26.28, optimistic $38.68 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $37.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ACHC?
The PEG ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −41.5%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACHC from its 52-week high?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc trades at $37.00, at its 52-week high of $37.00 and 217% above the low of $11.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Acadia Healthcare Company Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $37.00, calculated fair value $26.28 (−29%), Quality Score 32/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACHC calculated?
We run Acadia Healthcare Company Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $26.28 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Acadia Healthcare Company Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $37.00. Our model-based fair value is $26.28, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Acadia Healthcare Company Inc right now?
Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($16.96 to $38.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The market capitalisation of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 18.5 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 26.8 (7 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Earnings per share at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc are $−12.42. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The net margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is −33.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is −41.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The operating margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Revenue at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Earnings per share at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc are growing −63.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) generate?
The free cash flow of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is −$440M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) carry?
The net debt of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $2.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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