Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc $26.33, price $28.51, upside -7.7%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.68 – $89.06 · fair‑value band $16.96 – $38.26 · the $28.51 price screens above the $26.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico.
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Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company owns and operates acute inpatient psychiatric facilities; specialty treatment facilities comprising residential recovery facilities and eating disorder facilities; comprehensive treatment centers; and residential treatment centers, as well as facilities providing outpatient behavioral healthcare services for the behavioral healthcare and recovery needs of communities. Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) currently trades at $28.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.33, implying the stock looks roughly 8.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $46.29 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $28.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.20, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $16.96 (bear) to $38.26 (bull), the price of $28.51 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2B · P/S ratio 0.94 · EPS (TTM) $−12.20 · Net margin −33.3% · Return on equity −41.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% · Operating margin 10.1% · Revenue (TTM) $3.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −8%, ACHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.96Fair Value $26.33Bull $38.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.5% (2020) → 16.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Acadia Healthcare Company Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−33% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.27× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Acadia Healthcare Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACHC
Frequently asked questions
Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.33 versus a price of $28.51, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ACHC?
Our model-based fair value for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $26.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.51.
What is the quality score of ACHC?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.96, optimistic scenario $38.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.33, about −8% upside versus a price of $28.51 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $16.96, optimistic scenario $38.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Acadia Healthcare Company Inc it is $26.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $28.51. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ACHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.51, fair value $26.33, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.33). For Acadia Healthcare Company Inc the two are $2.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc worth?
The market values Acadia Healthcare Company Inc at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $28.51; our models calculate a fair value of $26.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACHC?
Our models span a range for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc: cautious scenario $16.96, base $26.33, optimistic $38.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $28.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ACHC?
The PEG ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −41.1%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACHC from its 52-week high?
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc trades at $28.51, about 20% below its 52-week high of $35.61 and 144% above the low of $11.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Acadia Healthcare Company Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Acadia Healthcare Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $28.51, calculated fair value $26.33 (−8%), Quality Score 34/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACHC calculated?
We run Acadia Healthcare Company Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Acadia Healthcare Company Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $28.51. Our model-based fair value is $26.33, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Acadia Healthcare Company Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($16.96 to $38.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The market capitalisation of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 0.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Earnings per share at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc are $−12.20. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The net margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is −33.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is −41.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
The operating margin of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Revenue at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC)?
Earnings per share at Acadia Healthcare Company Inc are growing −49.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) generate?
The free cash flow of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is −$440M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Acadia Healthcare Company Inc (ACHC) carry?
The net debt of Acadia Healthcare Company Inc is $2.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026