APA Corporation (APA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of APA Corporation stock $57.30, price $43.48, upside +31.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.25 – $52.82 · fair‑value band $42.98 – $71.99 · the $43.48 price screens below the $57.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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APA Corporation, an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids.
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The company has oil and gas operations in the United States, Egypt, and North Sea. It also has exploration and appraisal activities in Suriname, as well as holds interests in projects located in Uruguay and internationally.
APA Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
APA Corporation (APA) currently trades at $43.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.30, implying the stock looks roughly 24% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $74.41 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $43.48 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.48, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $42.98 (bear) to $71.99 (bull), the price of $43.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
APA Corporation reported revenue of $8.9B in FY2025 versus $8.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.4B Large · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 1.79 · EPS (TTM) $4.73 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 26.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 32%, APA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$42.98Fair Value $57.30Bull$71.99
Price $43.48 · Upside +31.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $392,392 and none bought.
SaleMark D MaddoxExecutive VP - Administration9,800 shares at $40.04$392,392May 20, 2026
SaleMatthew Regis BobDirector23,000 shares at $36.23$833,290Mar 18, 2026
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 31%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.6% a year for the price and −7.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: APA benefits from trading gains and buybacks in elevated price environments but remains vulnerable to dry hole expenses and commodity volatility across its assets.
Main risk: Stricter climate policies and emissions regulations could increase compliance costs and limit operations for APA's hydrocarbon assets in the US and internationally.
Bull case: APA could enhance operational efficiency and emissions performance through technology partnerships to better navigate regulatory requirements and maintain production stability.
Bear case: If climate regulations tighten further and larger rivals expand their cost advantages, APA might face higher operating expenses, restricted project approvals and reduced output across its US and international portfolio.
APA's recent supplemental results show a sizable gain from oil and gas purchases and sales plus ongoing share repurchases in a period of elevated realized prices. Our models see the stock as undervalued, yet the upstream business still faces dry hole costs and commodity volatility across its U.S. and international assets. Does the trading activity reinforce long-term production stability or simply mask short-term price exposure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+31.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)56.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "APA Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APA
Frequently asked questions
Is APA Corporation (APA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $57.30 versus a price of $43.48, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of APA?
Our model-based fair value for APA Corporation is $57.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.48.
What is the quality score of APA?
APA Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for APA Corporation (APA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $57.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.98, optimistic scenario $71.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the APA Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $57.30, about +32% upside versus a price of $43.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $42.98, optimistic scenario $71.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of APA Corporation (APA)?
APA Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does APA Corporation pay a dividend?
APA Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into APA Corporation (APA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, APA Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APA use?
Our models discount APA Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For APA Corporation that is -5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has APA Corporation (APA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at APA Corporation grew +15.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of APA Corporation (APA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into APA Corporation (-5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of APA Corporation (APA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.56 %: that much free cash flow APA Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of APA Corporation (APA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For APA Corporation it is $57.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $43.48. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is APA Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, APA trades below its calculated fair value: price $43.48, fair value $57.30, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($57.30). For APA Corporation the two are $13.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is APA Corporation worth?
The market values APA Corporation at about $15.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $43.48; our models calculate a fair value of $57.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APA?
Our models span a range for APA Corporation: cautious scenario $42.98, base $57.30, optimistic $71.99 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $43.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APA?
APA Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $57.30 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.5 (reported for FY2025: 10.8). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 6.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of APA?
The PEG ratio of APA Corporation is 1.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of APA Corporation (APA)?
Balance-sheet figures for APA Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 26.7%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APA from its 52-week high?
APA Corporation trades at $43.48, about 18% below its 52-week high of $52.82 and 104% above the low of $21.31 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $57.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to APA Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is APA Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $43.48, calculated fair value $57.30 (+32%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APA calculated?
We run APA Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $57.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. APA Corporation currently trades 24% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of APA Corporation (APA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $43.48. Our model-based fair value is $57.30, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with APA Corporation right now?
Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of APA Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of APA Corporation (APA)?
The market capitalisation of APA Corporation is $15.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of APA Corporation (APA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of APA Corporation is 1.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of APA Corporation (APA)?
Earnings per share at APA Corporation are $4.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of APA Corporation (APA)?
The dividend yield of APA Corporation is 2.3% (payout 22.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 21.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of APA Corporation (APA)?
The net margin of APA Corporation is 19.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of APA Corporation (APA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of APA Corporation is 26.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of APA Corporation (APA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of APA Corporation is 22.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of APA Corporation (APA)?
The operating margin of APA Corporation is 56.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at APA Corporation (APA)?
Revenue at APA Corporation is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at APA Corporation (APA)?
Earnings per share at APA Corporation are growing +26.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does APA Corporation (APA) carry?
The net debt of APA Corporation is $4.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026