Bumble Inc (BMBL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bumble Inc stock $15.22, price $5.97, upside +155.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.50 – $59.94 · fair‑value band $9.98 – $19.56 · the $5.97 price screens below the $15.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Bumble Inc. provides online dating and social networking applications in North America, Europe, internationally. It owns and operates websites and applications that offers subscription and in-app purchases of products.
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The company operates apps, including Bumble, a dating app built with women at the center; Badoo, the web and mobile free-to-use dating app; Bumble BFF, a friendship and community app that combines one-to-one matching with group discovery and participation.
The company was incorporated in 2020 in and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
Bumble Inc (BMBL) currently trades at $5.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.22, implying the stock looks roughly 61% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.23 per share, and 12 of the 12 models we run sit above the $5.97 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.71, and 0 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $9.98 (bear) to $19.56 (bull), the price of $5.97 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bumble Inc reported revenue of $966M in FY2025 versus $761M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$693M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $919M Small · P/E ex one-offs 1.9 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) $−4.15 · Net margin −58.0% · Return on equity −76.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 28.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 139% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 155%, BMBL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.98Fair Value $15.22Bull$19.56
Price $5.97 · Upside +155.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$15.39$25.62$39.8979
Growth DCF$15.06$23.87$35.2978
5Y EBITDA Exit$14.64$26.36$40.7474
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$15.39$25.62$39.8979
5Y Revenue Exit$13.26$23.56$37.1871
5Y EBITDA Exit$14.64$26.36$40.7474
10Y Revenue Exit$13.52$22.52$35.6765
10Y EBITDA Exit$14.64$24.23$38.1367
Earnings-Based
EPV$8.39$9.71$10.7774
Multiples
EV/EBIT$19.99$27.70$35.4066
EV/EBITDA$15.97$22.34$28.7167
EV/Revenue$12.24$18.82$25.4153
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$15.06$23.87$35.2978
Rev-Margin DCF$13.26$23.48$36.5771
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$9.31$12.04$15.1672
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
SaleBlackstone Management Associates VII NQ L.L.C.10% owner3,767,776 shares at $2.94$11.1MSep 28, 2026
SaleBlackstone Holdings I/II GP L.L.C.10% owner2× since Mar 17, 2026: 11,245,280 shares, avg. $3.32$37.3MSep 28, 2026
SaleBlackstone Inc.10% owner3,767,776 shares at $2.94$11.1MSep 28, 2026
Plus 8 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.0% (2020) → 26.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.2% a year for the price and −7.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 122 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+155.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−49.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−58.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−15.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.04× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.64× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bumble Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMBL
Frequently asked questions
Is Bumble Inc (BMBL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.22 versus a price of $5.97, about +155% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BMBL?
Our model-based fair value for Bumble Inc is $15.22 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.97.
What is the quality score of BMBL?
Bumble Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.22 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.98, optimistic scenario $19.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bumble Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.22, about +155% upside versus a price of $5.97 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.98, optimistic scenario $19.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
Bumble Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $893M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bumble Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BMBL use?
Our models discount Bumble Inc at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bumble Inc that is -10.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bumble Inc (BMBL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bumble Inc grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -10.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bumble Inc (BMBL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bumble Inc (-10.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.51 %: that much free cash flow Bumble Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bumble Inc it is $15.22 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $5.97. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Bumble Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, BMBL trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.97, fair value $15.22, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMBL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.22). For Bumble Inc the two are $9.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bumble Inc worth?
The market values Bumble Inc at about $919M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $5.97; our models calculate a fair value of $15.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMBL?
Our models span a range for Bumble Inc: cautious scenario $9.98, base $15.22, optimistic $19.56 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $5.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bumble Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −76.9%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMBL from its 52-week high?
Bumble Inc trades at $5.97, at its 52-week high of $6.00 and 139% above the low of $2.50 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bumble Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bumble Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $5.97, calculated fair value $15.22 (+155%), Quality Score 55/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMBL calculated?
We run Bumble Inc through 12 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.22 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Bumble Inc currently trades 61% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.97. Our model-based fair value is $15.22, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bumble Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($9.98 to $19.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Bumble Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
The market capitalisation of Bumble Inc is $919M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Bumble Inc (BMBL) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Bumble Inc is 1.9 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bumble Inc is 1.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
Earnings per share at Bumble Inc are $−4.15. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
The net margin of Bumble Inc is −58.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bumble Inc is −76.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bumble Inc is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
The operating margin of Bumble Inc is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
Revenue at Bumble Inc is growing −15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bumble Inc (BMBL)?
Earnings per share at Bumble Inc are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bumble Inc (BMBL) carry?
The net debt of Bumble Inc is $413M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026