BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. stock $25.72, price $65.86, that is 60.9% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range $8.23 – $72.91 · fair‑value band $13.98 – $33.43 · the $65.86 price screens above the $25.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. operates as a home and community-based healthcare services platform in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Pharmacy Solutions and Provider Services.
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Its platform focuses on delivering pharmacy and provider services, including clinical and supportive care in home and community settings to Medicare, Medicaid, and insured populations.
It also offers infused, injectable, and oral medication services; and patient-centric, highly skilled, and compassionate clinical home health care, as well as rehabilitation services, including physical, speech and occupational therapy and applied behavioral analysis.
The company was formerly known as Phoenix Parent Holdings Inc. and changed its name to BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. in May 2021. BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock analysis
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) currently trades at $65.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.72, 61% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.87 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $65.86 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.50, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.98 (bear) to $33.43 (bull), the price of $65.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $12.9B in FY2025 versus $6.7B in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $191M in FY2025, compounding +39.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.5B Large · P/E ratio 58.3 · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) $1.13 · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 110% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −61%, BTSG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.98Fair Value $25.72Bull$33.43
Price $65.86 · Downside -60.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9597 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $20.3M and none bought.
SaleScott A. GreenwellPresident, PharMerica15,099 shares at $57.91$874,383Sep 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJennifer A PhippsChief Financial Officer2× since Mar 4, 2026: 70,000 shares, avg. $49.95$3.5MJun 5, 2026
SaleLisa A NalleyOfficer2× since Mar 4, 2026: 65,000 shares, avg. $50.63$3.3MJun 5, 2026
SaleJon B RousseauOfficer, Director2× since Mar 4, 2026: 480,000 shares, avg. $50.68$24.3MJun 5, 2026
SaleKKR Associates Americas XII L.P.10% owner14,669,771 shares at $58.45$857.4MJun 5, 2026
SaleHenry R Kravis10% owner14,669,771 shares at $58.45$857.4MJun 5, 2026
SaleKKR Phoenix Aggregator GP LLC10% owner19,715,000 shares at $40.96$807.5MMar 4, 2026
SaleKKR & Co. Inc.10% owner19,715,000 shares at $40.96$807.5MMar 4, 2026
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
’18
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.3% a year for the price and +10.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Thin evidence of a durable moat and low net margins indicate limited pricing power, while AI automation is already supporting higher adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion.
Main risk: Larger payer-owned players such as Accredo and Optum Specialty could use their scale and captive customers to capture more specialty pharmacy volume from BrightSpring and pressure its margins.
Bull case: BrightSpring could leverage its integrated pharmacy and provider platform plus ongoing AI automation to improve efficiency and win more complex-patient contracts despite larger rivals.
Bear case: If larger payer-owned pharmacies expand aggressively and reimbursement rates decline, BrightSpring could lose specialty volume and see sustained margin compression across its core services.
BrightSpring is deploying AI tools and automation across hiring, onboarding, documentation and patient care planning. Second-quarter results already reflected some benefits through higher adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion. Will these technology investments drive meaningful, sustained efficiency gains across the business or prove difficult to scale in a regulated healthcare environment?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 119 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)26.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)58.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.74× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.95× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow36.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA24.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 42
PAST (return on equity)62· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)35· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTSG
Frequently asked questions
Is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.72 versus a price of $65.86, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BTSG?
Our model-based fair value for BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is $25.72 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $65.86.
What is the quality score of BTSG?
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.72 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $33.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.72, about 61% lower versus a price of $65.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $33.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by +28.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.3 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTSG use?
Our models discount BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock that is +28.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock grew +18.3 % a year. The price currently implies +28.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (+28.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.72 %: that much free cash flow BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock it is $25.72 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $65.86. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, BTSG trades above its calculated fair value: price $65.86, fair value $25.72, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTSG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($65.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.72). For BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock the two are $40.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock at about $14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $65.86; our models calculate a fair value of $25.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTSG?
Our models span a range for BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $13.98, base $25.72, optimistic $33.43 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $65.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BTSG?
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.3 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.72 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 126.7 (reported for FY2025: 75.7). Other multiples: P/B 7.7, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 24.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 1.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BTSG from its 52-week high?
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock trades at $65.86, about 10% below its 52-week high of $72.91 and 110% above the low of $31.36 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, Hinge Health, Inc, HealthEquity, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $65.86, calculated fair value $25.72 (−61%), Quality Score 50/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTSG calculated?
We run BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $65.86. Our model-based fair value is $25.72, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.98 to $33.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
How large is the market capitalisation of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
The market capitalisation of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is $14.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is 0.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
Earnings per share at BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock are $1.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
The net margin of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is 2.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
The operating margin of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
Revenue at BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is growing +26.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)?
Earnings per share at BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock are growing +82.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) carry?
The net debt of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 2, 2026