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Data-driven stock valuation

Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Carlsmed, Inc. stock $2.97, price $14.52, that is 79.6% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US

CI Carlsmed, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Carlsmed, Inc.

CARL · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 80% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +57% vs. a year ago.
Quality 46/100
Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +85.9 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $29,305 (6M)
Fair value $2.97 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -57.4% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$16.99 $8.83 Fair Value $2.97 Jul 2025 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

15‑month range $8.83 – $16.99 · fair‑value band $1.96 – $3.71 · the $14.52 price screens above the $2.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Carlsmed, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, designs, manufactures, and markets AI-enabled personalized spine surgery solutions. The company develops aprevo, a comprehensive technology platform for spine fusion surgery procedures.

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Its aprevo platform includes proprietary surgical planning software, using outcomes-based algorithms that are aided with artificial intelligence, and resulting custom-built, anatomically designed vertebral interbody implants. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Carlsbad, California.

Stock analysis

Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) currently trades at $14.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.97, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $1.96 (bear) to $3.71 (bull), the price of $14.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $50.5M in FY2025 versus $13.8M in FY2023, a compound +91.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $439M Small · P/S ratio 6.94 · EPS (TTM) $−1.08 · Net margin −57.4% · Return on equity −66.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −67.5% (3-year average) · Operating margin −58.3% · Revenue (TTM) $63.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −80%, CARL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.96 Fair Value $2.97 Bull $3.71
Price $14.52 · Downside -79.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $2.31 $3.49 $4.37 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.31 $3.49 $4.37 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 15
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 98
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 69
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 63
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $29,305 and none bought.

  • SaleJeffrey BertoliniChief Operating Officer4× since Sep 30, 2026: 1,980 shares, avg. $14.80$29,305Nov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleMichael CordonnierCEO, President, Director197,855 shares at $13.29$2.6MMar 2, 2026

Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

CARL screens overvalued: fair value 80% below the price. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (50 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 117 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −79.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −23.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −57.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −58.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 56.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.44× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 6.94× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 46
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Veeva Systems Inc VEEV $303.73 $334.10 +10% vs CARL
HealthEquity, Inc HQY $103.63 $113.99 +10% vs CARL
Doximity, Inc DOCS $32.51 $35.76 +10% vs CARL
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS ₹1,657 ₹1,823 +10% vs CARL
Waystar Holding WAY $28.35 $29.10 +3% vs CARL
Hinge Health, Inc HNGE $115.76 $51.25 −56% vs CARL
Pro Medicus Limited PME A$205.49 A$85.12 −59% vs CARL
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG $67.15 $25.72 −62% vs CARL
XtalPi Holdings 2228 HK$6.13 HK$1.53 −75% vs CARL
Privia Health Group PRVA $24.42 $5.52 −77% vs CARL

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Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CARL

Frequently asked questions

Is Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.97 versus a price of $14.52, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CARL?
Our model-based fair value for Carlsmed, Inc. is $2.97 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.52.
What is the quality score of CARL?
Carlsmed, Inc. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.97 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.96, optimistic scenario $3.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.97, about 80% lower versus a price of $14.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.96, optimistic scenario $3.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Carlsmed, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $63.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlsmed, Inc. it is $2.97 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $14.52. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CARL trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.52, fair value $2.97, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CARL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.97). For Carlsmed, Inc. the two are $11.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Carlsmed, Inc. at about $439M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $14.52; our models calculate a fair value of $2.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CARL?
Our models span a range for Carlsmed, Inc.: cautious scenario $1.96, base $2.97, optimistic $3.71 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $14.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlsmed, Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −66.1%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CARL from its 52-week high?
Carlsmed, Inc. trades at $14.52, about 15% below its 52-week high of $16.99 and 64% above the low of $8.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, Hinge Health, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $14.52, calculated fair value $2.97 (−80%), Quality Score 46/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CARL calculated?
We run Carlsmed, Inc. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.97 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Carlsmed, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.52. Our model-based fair value is $2.97, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.96 to $3.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Carlsmed, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The market capitalisation of Carlsmed, Inc. is $439M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlsmed, Inc. is 6.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Earnings per share at Carlsmed, Inc. are $−1.08. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The net margin of Carlsmed, Inc. is −57.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlsmed, Inc. is −66.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlsmed, Inc. is −67.5% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The operating margin of Carlsmed, Inc. is −58.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Revenue at Carlsmed, Inc. is growing +56.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) generate?
The free cash flow of Carlsmed, Inc. is −$29.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) hold?
Carlsmed, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $68.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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