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Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Carlsmed, Inc. $2.97, price $14.82, upside -80.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US14280C1053

CI Carlsmed, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Carlsmed, Inc.

CARL · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.97 · Strongly overvalued (−80%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +85.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -57.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$16.99 $8.83 Fair Value $2.97 Jul 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

14‑month range $8.83 – $16.99 · fair‑value band $1.96 – $3.72 · the $14.82 price screens above the $2.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Carlsmed, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, designs, manufactures, and markets AI-enabled personalized spine surgery solutions. The company develops aprevo, a comprehensive technology platform for spine fusion surgery procedures.

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Carlsmed, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, designs, manufactures, and markets AI-enabled personalized spine surgery solutions. The company develops aprevo, a comprehensive technology platform for spine fusion surgery procedures. Its aprevo platform includes proprietary surgical planning software, using outcomes-based algorithms that are aided with artificial intelligence, and resulting custom-built, anatomically designed vertebral interbody implants. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Carlsbad, California.

Stock analysis

Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock (CARL) currently trades at $14.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.97, implying the stock looks roughly 399.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.96 (bear) to $3.72 (bull), the price of $14.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $50.5M in FY2025 versus $13.8M in FY2023, a compound +91.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $403M · P/S ratio 6.62 · EPS (TTM) $−2.34 · Net margin −59.8% · Return on equity −66.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −67.5% · Operating margin −58.3% · Revenue (TTM) $63.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −80%, CARL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.96 Fair Value $2.97 Bull $3.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.81 $2.43 $3.62 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.81 $2.43 $3.62 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

CARL screens 400% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 133 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −28% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −57% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −58% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 57% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.37× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 35
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Veeva Systems Inc VEEV $270.75 $297.83 +10%
Pro Medicus Limited PME A$161.31 A$64.50 −60%
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG $56.55 $26.07 −54%
HealthEquity, Inc HQY $91.75 $100.93 +10%
Hinge Health, Inc HNGE $94.15 $51.66 −45%
10x Genomics, Inc TXG $80.70 $21.71 −73%
Waystar Holding WAY $25.63 $28.19 +10%
XtalPi Holdings 2228 HK$8.39 HK$1.50 −82%
Doximity, Inc DOCS $26.51 $31.41 +18%
Privia Health Group PRVA $19.46 $5.26 −73%

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Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock · Fair Value
$2.97 −400%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CARL

Frequently asked questions

Is Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.97 versus a price of $14.82, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CARL?
Our model-based fair value for Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is $2.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.82.
What is the quality score of CARL?
Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.96, optimistic scenario $3.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.97, about −80% upside versus a price of $14.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.96, optimistic scenario $3.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $63.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock it is $2.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.82. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CARL trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.82, fair value $2.97, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CARL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.97). For Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock the two are $11.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock at about $403M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.82; our models calculate a fair value of $2.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CARL?
Our models span a range for Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $1.96, base $2.97, optimistic $3.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −66.1%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CARL from its 52-week high?
Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock trades at $14.82, about 13% below its 52-week high of $16.99 and 68% above the low of $8.83 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, HealthEquity, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.82, calculated fair value $2.97 (−80%), Quality Score 45/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CARL calculated?
We run Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $14.82. Our model-based fair value is $2.97, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.96 to $3.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The market capitalisation of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is $403M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is 6.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Earnings per share at Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock are $−2.34. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The net margin of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is −59.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is −66.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is −67.5% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
The operating margin of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is −58.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)?
Revenue at Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is growing +56.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) generate?
The free cash flow of Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock is −$29.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) hold?
Carlsmed, Inc. Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $68.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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