Cromwell Property Group (CMW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cromwell Property Group stock A$0.39, price A$0.37, upside +6.8%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2562 – A$0.6147 · fair‑value band A$0.2300 – A$0.5500 · the A$0.3650 price screens below the A$0.3900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Cromwell Property Group is a real estate investment manager with 4.2 billion US dolars of assets under management in Australia and New Zealand on 30 June 2025.
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Cromwell is a trusted partner and investment manager to a range of local and global investors; capital providers and banking partners and has a strong track record of creating value and delivering superior risk-adjusted returns throughout the real estate investment cycle.
Cromwell Property Group was incorporated in Australia.
Stock analysis
Cromwell Property Group (CMW) currently trades at A$0.3650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3900, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$0.5000 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$0.3650 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.2600, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2300 (bear) to A$0.5500 (bull), the price of A$0.3650 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Cromwell Property Group reported revenue of A$178M in FY2026 versus A$353M in FY2022, a compound −15.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$135M in FY2026, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$963M (≈ $661M) Small · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 4.81 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0513 · Dividend yield 8.2% · Net margin 67.9% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 7%, CMW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.2300Fair Value A$0.3900BullA$0.5500
Price A$0.3650 · Upside +6.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0072 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.5% vs −10.6%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 52%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.9% a year for the price.
Compare Cromwell Property Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 63 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+6.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)67.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−12.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−55.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.64× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)4.81× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cromwell Property Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMW
Frequently asked questions
Is Cromwell Property Group (CMW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3900 versus a price of A$0.3650, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CMW?
Our model-based fair value for Cromwell Property Group is A$0.3900 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3650.
What is the quality score of CMW?
Cromwell Property Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3900 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2300, optimistic scenario A$0.5500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cromwell Property Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3900, about +7% upside versus a price of A$0.3650 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.2300, optimistic scenario A$0.5500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Cromwell Property Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$200M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Cromwell Property Group pay a dividend?
Cromwell Property Group currently shows a dividend yield of 8.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cromwell Property Group (CMW) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cromwell Property Group pays a dividend of A$0.03 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 60.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.80 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cromwell Property Group would have to grow free cash flow by +20.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMW use?
Our models discount Cromwell Property Group at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cromwell Property Group that is +20.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cromwell Property Group (CMW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cromwell Property Group grew -13.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cromwell Property Group (CMW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cromwell Property Group (+20.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.55 %: that much free cash flow Cromwell Property Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cromwell Property Group it is A$0.3900 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of A$0.3650. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Cromwell Property Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, CMW trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.3650, fair value A$0.3900, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3900). For Cromwell Property Group the two are A$0.0250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cromwell Property Group worth?
The market values Cromwell Property Group at about A$963M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3650; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMW?
Our models span a range for Cromwell Property Group: cautious scenario A$0.2300, base A$0.3900, optimistic A$0.5500 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price A$0.3650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMW?
Cromwell Property Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 17.0, P/B 0.6, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CMW?
The PEG ratio of Cromwell Property Group is 16.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cromwell Property Group (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMW from its 52-week high?
Cromwell Property Group trades at A$0.3650, about 20% below its 52-week high of A$0.4548 and 16% above the low of A$0.3150 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cromwell Property Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cromwell Property Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price A$0.3650, calculated fair value A$0.3900 (+7%), Quality Score 64/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMW calculated?
We run Cromwell Property Group through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.3900 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Cromwell Property Group currently trades 6% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$0.3650. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3900, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cromwell Property Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$0.2300 to A$0.5500) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Cromwell Property Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The market capitalisation of Cromwell Property Group is A$963M (≈ $661M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cromwell Property Group is 4.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Earnings per share at Cromwell Property Group are A$0.0513 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The dividend yield of Cromwell Property Group is 8.2% (payout 58.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The net margin of Cromwell Property Group is 67.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cromwell Property Group is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cromwell Property Group is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The operating margin of Cromwell Property Group is −12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Revenue at Cromwell Property Group is growing −55.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Earnings per share at Cromwell Property Group are growing +513% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cromwell Property Group (CMW) carry?
The net debt of Cromwell Property Group is A$730M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026