Cromwell Property Group (CMW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cromwell Property Group A$0.51, price A$0.36, upside +43.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2621 – A$0.6288 · fair‑value band A$0.2700 – A$0.8100 · the A$0.3550 price screens below the A$0.5100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Cromwell Property Group is a real estate investment manager with 4.2 billion US dolars of assets under management in Australia and New Zealand on 30 June 2025.
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Cromwell Property Group is a real estate investment manager with 4.2 billion US dolars of assets under management in Australia and New Zealand on 30 June 2025. Cromwell is a trusted partner and investment manager to a range of local and global investors; capital providers and banking partners and has a strong track record of creating value and delivering superior risk-adjusted returns throughout the real estate investment cycle. Cromwell Property Group was incorporated in Australia.
Stock analysis
Cromwell Property Group (CMW) currently trades at A$0.3550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5100, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.5100 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$0.3550 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.3300, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2700 (bear) to A$0.8100 (bull), the price of A$0.3550 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Cromwell Property Group reported revenue of A$177M in FY2025 versus A$361M in FY2021, a compound −16.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$22.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.1B (≈ $784M) · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 4.46 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0400 · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin −12.8% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 44%, CMW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.2700Fair Value A$0.5100Bull A$0.8100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
46.9% (2019) → 47.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price.
Compare Cromwell Property Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+44% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)42% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)74% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth71% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cromwell Property Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMW
Frequently asked questions
Is Cromwell Property Group (CMW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.5100 versus a price of A$0.3550, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMW?
Our model-based fair value for Cromwell Property Group is A$0.5100 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3550.
What is the quality score of CMW?
Cromwell Property Group has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.5100 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2700, optimistic scenario A$0.8100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cromwell Property Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.5100, about +44% upside versus a price of A$0.3550 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2700, optimistic scenario A$0.8100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Cromwell Property Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$249M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Cromwell Property Group pay a dividend?
Cromwell Property Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cromwell Property Group would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -15.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMW use?
Our models discount Cromwell Property Group at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cromwell Property Group that is +9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cromwell Property Group (CMW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cromwell Property Group grew -15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cromwell Property Group (CMW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cromwell Property Group (+9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.97 %: that much free cash flow Cromwell Property Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cromwell Property Group it is A$0.5100 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.3550. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cromwell Property Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CMW trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.3550, fair value A$0.5100, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5100). For Cromwell Property Group the two are A$0.1550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cromwell Property Group worth?
The market values Cromwell Property Group at about A$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3550; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMW?
Our models span a range for Cromwell Property Group: cautious scenario A$0.2700, base A$0.5100, optimistic A$0.8100 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.3550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMW?
Cromwell Property Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.5100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 17.0, P/B 0.5, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CMW?
The PEG ratio of Cromwell Property Group is 16.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cromwell Property Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMW from its 52-week high?
Cromwell Property Group trades at A$0.3550, about 24% below its 52-week high of A$0.4653 and 3% above the low of A$0.3450 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.5100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cromwell Property Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cromwell Property Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.3550, calculated fair value A$0.5100 (+44%), Quality Score 61/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMW calculated?
We run Cromwell Property Group through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.5100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cromwell Property Group currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.3550. Our model-based fair value is A$0.5100, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cromwell Property Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.2700 to A$0.8100). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Cromwell Property Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The market capitalisation of Cromwell Property Group is A$1.1B (≈ $784M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cromwell Property Group is 4.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Earnings per share at Cromwell Property Group are A$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The dividend yield of Cromwell Property Group is 8.5% (payout 75.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The net margin of Cromwell Property Group is −12.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cromwell Property Group is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cromwell Property Group is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
The operating margin of Cromwell Property Group is 73.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Revenue at Cromwell Property Group is growing +70.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cromwell Property Group (CMW)?
Earnings per share at Cromwell Property Group are growing −20.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cromwell Property Group (CMW) carry?
The net debt of Cromwell Property Group is A$597M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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