Cromwell Property Group (CMW) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$1.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from A$0.6000 to A$0.4400 (−26.7%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.2700 to A$0.6000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2621 – A$0.6342 · fair‑value band A$0.2700 – A$0.6000 · the A$0.4350 price screens below the A$0.4400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Cromwell Property Group (CMW) currently trades at A$0.4350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.4400, implying the stock looks roughly 1.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cromwell Property Group generated revenue of A$249M at a net margin of 42.2%. Revenue grew 70.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at A$597M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.2700 (bear case) to A$0.6000 (bull case); at A$0.4350, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at 1%, CMW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$0.4400) versus Growth DCF (A$0.3500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cromwell Property Group is a real estate investment manager with 4.2 billion US dolars of assets under management in Australia and New Zealand on 30 June 2025.
Full company description
Cromwell Property Group is a real estate investment manager with 4.2 billion US dolars of assets under management in Australia and New Zealand on 30 June 2025. Cromwell is a trusted partner and investment manager to a range of local and global investors; capital providers and banking partners and has a strong track record of creating value and delivering superior risk-adjusted returns throughout the real estate investment cycle. Cromwell Property Group was incorporated in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cromwell Property Group reported revenue of A$177M in FY2025 versus A$361M in FY2021, a compound −16.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$22.6M in FY2025.
Watch CMW: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
REIT - Office · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €15.23 | €6.46 | -58% |
| BXP, Inc BXP | $69.11 | $53.27 | -23% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $51.75 | $41.59 | -20% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $50.12 | $59.48 | +19% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $15.38 | $4.60 | -70% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.28 SGD | 1.14 SGD | -11% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $32.15 | $17.62 | -45% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC | $39.42 | $40.37 | +2% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.20 SGD | 1.68 SGD | -24% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.64 | A$4.49 | -20% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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