Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc stock $2.02, price $3.48, that is 42.0% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.44 – $7.51 · fair‑value band $1.50 – $3.00 · the $3.48 price screens above the $2.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an energy company, engages in the development, production, ownership, exploitation, and investment of onshore oil and gas properties in the United States. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM) currently trades at $3.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.02, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at medium.
Scenario range: $1.50 (bear) to $3.00 (bull), the price of $3.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc reported revenue of $86.3M in FY2026 versus $109M in FY2022, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.4M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $143M Micro · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0800 · Dividend yield 13.8% · Net margin −2.8% · Return on equity −3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −42%, EPM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.50Fair Value $2.02Bull$3.00
Price $3.48 · Downside -42.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$0.7500$1.01$1.5054
EV/Revenuen/an/a$0.200050
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/Revenuen/an/a$0.200050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.7500$1.01$1.5054
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−63.4% (2021) → 4.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−42.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−2.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)25.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)13.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.94× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.66× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.3× · Pricier than median
PEG0.69× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)53· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.02 versus a price of $3.48, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EPM?
Our model-based fair value for Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is $2.02 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.48.
What is the quality score of EPM?
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.02 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.50, optimistic scenario $3.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.02, about 42% lower versus a price of $3.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.50, optimistic scenario $3.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $86.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc pay a dividend?
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 13.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc pays a dividend of $0.48 per share a year, a dividend yield of 13.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc it is $2.02 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $3.48. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, EPM trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.48, fair value $2.02, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EPM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.02). For Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc the two are $1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc worth?
The market values Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc at about $143M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $3.48; our models calculate a fair value of $2.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EPM?
Our models span a range for Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc: cautious scenario $1.50, base $2.02, optimistic $3.00 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $3.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of EPM?
The PEG ratio of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −3.7%, debt of 0.94 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EPM from its 52-week high?
Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc trades at $3.48, about 28% below its 52-week high of $4.81 and 14% above the low of $3.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $3.48, calculated fair value $2.02 (−42%), Quality Score 30/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EPM calculated?
We run Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.02 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.48. Our model-based fair value is $2.02, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($1.50 to $3.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM) come from?
Earnings per share at Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc grew −16.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.3 %, EBIT margin −14.3 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −14.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
The market capitalisation of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is $143M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is 1.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
Earnings per share at Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc are $−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
The dividend yield of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is 13.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
The net margin of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is −2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is 14.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
The operating margin of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
Revenue at Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM)?
Earnings per share at Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc are growing +31.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM) generate?
The free cash flow of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is −$6.8M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc (EPM) carry?
The net debt of Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc is $50.8M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026