Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $138M
Evolution Petroleum Corporation
EPM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $1.23 to $2.46 (+100.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band ($2.36 to $2.46), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.19 – $7.51 · fair‑value band $2.36 – $2.46 · the $3.65 price screens above the $2.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) currently trades at $3.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.46, implying the stock looks roughly 32.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Evolution Petroleum Corporation generated revenue of $83.2M at a net margin of -4.4%. Revenue declined 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.6%. Net debt stands at $35.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.36 (bear case) to $2.46 (bull case); at $3.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -33%, EPM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($2.79) versus Multiples ($0.5800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an energy company, engages in the development, production, ownership, exploitation, and investment of onshore oil and gas properties in the United States. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Evolution Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of $85.8M in FY2025 versus $32.7M in FY2021, a compound +27.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +17.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
EPM screens 33% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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