Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Epsilon Energy Ltd stock $4.69, price $5.17, that is 9.2% below the price, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.82 – $7.93 · fair‑value band $3.52 – $5.66 · the $5.17 price screens above the $4.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Epsilon Energy Ltd., a North American onshore independent natural gas and oil company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, gathering, and production of natural oil and gas reserves. The company operates through Upstream and Gathering System segments.
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It has natural gas production in the Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas production in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta.
Epsilon Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) currently trades at $5.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.69, 9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.77 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $5.17 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.50, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.52 (bear) to $5.66 (bull), the price of $5.17 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Epsilon Energy Ltd reported revenue of $51.6M in FY2025 versus $42.4M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $157M Micro · P/S ratio 2.31 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2400 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin −11.2% · Return on equity −3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 36.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −9%, EPSN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.52Fair Value $4.69Bull$5.66
Price $5.17 · Downside -9.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$0.6100$1.91$3.8874
EPV$2.28$2.76$3.1774
Growth DCF$0.5800$1.71$3.3373
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$0.6100$1.91$3.8874
5Y Revenue Exit$0.2400$1.30$2.7266
5Y EBITDA Exit$1.72$4.34$7.6571
10Y Revenue Exit$0.3200$1.32$2.7960
10Y EBITDA Exit$1.25$3.33$6.5263
Earnings-Based
EPV$2.28$2.76$3.1774
Multiples
EV/EBIT$2.48$3.77$5.0665
EV/EBITDA$2.74$4.11$5.4966
EV/Revenue$0.0400$0.6500$1.2746
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$2.07$2.78$4.1554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$0.5800$1.71$3.3373
Rev-Margin DCF$0.2400$1.29$2.6566
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$2.28$2.76$3.1772
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $549,531, on Sep 21, 2026.
BuyJason StabellChief Executive Officer, Director6× since Nov 19, 2025: 169,117 shares, avg. $5.36$906,507Sep 21, 2026
SaleTucker Golden Frederick10% owner2× since Dec 18, 2025: 148,852 shares, avg. $5.44$809,053Mar 30, 2026
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+63.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
30.7% (2019) → 10.9% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−9.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−5.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)36.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)57.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Epsilon Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EPSN
Frequently asked questions
Is Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.69 versus a price of $5.17, about 9% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EPSN?
Our model-based fair value for Epsilon Energy Ltd is $4.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.17.
What is the quality score of EPSN?
Epsilon Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.52, optimistic scenario $5.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Epsilon Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.69, about 9% lower versus a price of $5.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.52, optimistic scenario $5.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
Epsilon Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $67.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Epsilon Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Epsilon Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Epsilon Energy Ltd pays a dividend of $0.25 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.69 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Epsilon Energy Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EPSN use?
Our models discount Epsilon Energy Ltd at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Epsilon Energy Ltd that is +25.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Epsilon Energy Ltd grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +25.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Epsilon Energy Ltd (+25.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.32 %: that much free cash flow Epsilon Energy Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Epsilon Energy Ltd it is $4.69 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $5.17. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Epsilon Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, EPSN trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.17, fair value $4.69, a gap of about −9% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EPSN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.69). For Epsilon Energy Ltd the two are $0.4780 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Epsilon Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Epsilon Energy Ltd at about $157M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $5.17; our models calculate a fair value of $4.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EPSN?
Our models span a range for Epsilon Energy Ltd: cautious scenario $3.52, base $4.69, optimistic $5.66 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $5.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Epsilon Energy Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −3.1%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EPSN from its 52-week high?
Epsilon Energy Ltd trades at $5.17, about 20% below its 52-week high of $6.46 and 26% above the low of $4.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Epsilon Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Epsilon Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $5.17, calculated fair value $4.69 (−9%), Quality Score 28/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EPSN calculated?
We run Epsilon Energy Ltd through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.69 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Epsilon Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.17. Our model-based fair value is $4.69, about 9% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Epsilon Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Epsilon Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The market capitalisation of Epsilon Energy Ltd is $157M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Epsilon Energy Ltd is 2.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
Earnings per share at Epsilon Energy Ltd are $−0.2400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The dividend yield of Epsilon Energy Ltd is 4.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The net margin of Epsilon Energy Ltd is −11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Epsilon Energy Ltd is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Epsilon Energy Ltd is 14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
The operating margin of Epsilon Energy Ltd is 36.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
Revenue at Epsilon Energy Ltd is growing +57.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN)?
Earnings per share at Epsilon Energy Ltd are growing +229% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) carry?
The net debt of Epsilon Energy Ltd is $42.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026