Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $160M
Epsilon Energy Ltd
EPSN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $2.35 to $4.70 (+100.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.90 to $7.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.23 – $8.01 · fair‑value band $3.90 – $7.44 · the $5.71 price screens above the $4.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Epsilon Energy Ltd (EPSN) currently trades at $5.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.70, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Epsilon Energy Ltd generated revenue of $61.0M at a net margin of -14.9%. Revenue grew 58.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.1%. Net debt stands at $42.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.90 (bear case) to $7.44 (bull case); at $5.71, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -18%, EPSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($3.79) versus Growth DCF ($1.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Epsilon Energy Ltd., a North American onshore independent natural gas and oil company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, gathering, and production of natural oil and gas reserves. The company operates through Upstream and Gathering System segments.
Full company description
Epsilon Energy Ltd., a North American onshore independent natural gas and oil company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, gathering, and production of natural oil and gas reserves. The company operates through Upstream and Gathering System segments. It has natural gas production in the Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas production in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta. Epsilon Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Epsilon Energy Ltd reported revenue of $51.6M in FY2025 versus $42.4M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.8M in FY2025.
EPSN screens 18% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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